铁矿石期货日报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current iron ore market is in a triple - game situation of "supply contraction, demand recovery, and high inventory". The reduction in Australian and Brazilian shipments on the supply side provides support, the increase in hot metal production on the demand side strengthens the restocking expectation, while the inventory accumulation pattern at ports and steel mills restricts the upward space. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures main contract I2605 will maintain range - bound oscillations. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking progress, port inventory accumulation speed, and global shipment data changes [8] 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The I2605 contract opened at 822 yuan/ton, with the highest intraday price reaching 828 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 814 yuan/ton, closing at 819.5 yuan/ton, with an all - day amplitude of 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 311,621 lots, and the trading value was 25.581 billion yuan. The capital participation decreased compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 653,300 lots, a decrease of 1,527 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that short - term capital divergence weakened and market wait - and - see sentiment increased [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 13, the domestic iron ore spot market prices were stable with some increases, and different varieties showed differentiation. The mainstream delivery products' prices all rose compared with the previous day. The basis between the main contract closing price of 819.5 yuan/ton and the PB powder spot price of 825 yuan/wet ton was 5.5 yuan/ton, which narrowed compared with the previous day, and the futures - spot linkage increased [5] 3.3影响因素 - Supply side: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the global supply tightened marginally. From January 5th to January 11th, Australian shipments were 1,931.6 million tons (a decrease of 8 million tons month - on - month), Brazilian shipments were 674.8 million tons (a decrease of 128.3 million tons month - on - month), and the combined shipments of Australia and Brazil decreased by 136.3 million tons month - on - month. Meanwhile, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,255.2 million tons (an increase of 96.9 million tons month - on - month). Demand side: The resumption of production of steel mills accelerated, and the hot metal output continued to rise. The daily hot metal output increased by 2.07 million tons to 2.295 billion tons, reaching a recent high, and the steel mills' rigid demand for iron ore strengthened. On the daily - line level, the I2605 contract closed with a small doji candlestick, and the short - term support and pressure intervals were clear. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased slightly, showing that the market trading sentiment became more cautious. The MACD indicators DIFF and DEA were glued near the zero - axis, and the green bars shrank slightly, with neutral momentum and no clear unilateral trend signal [6] 3.4行情展望 - The iron ore market is in a triple - game situation. The cost support logic of iron ore is indirectly boosted by the 50 - yuan/ton increase in the scrap steel purchase price of Shagang. However, in the off - season, the terminal demand has not significantly increased, and the release rhythm of pre - holiday restocking demand is uncertain. It is expected that the short - term main contract I2605 of iron ore futures will maintain range - bound oscillations [8]