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Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight position in equities while maintaining neutral allocations in bonds, commodities, and cash, with a low allocation to credit [2] Core Insights - Despite high market valuations, macro fundamentals are expected to support the current levels, and high valuations alone do not constitute a bearish signal [3] - Economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be diversified, driven by fiscal policy, regulatory easing, and AI penetration, while political and geopolitical risks should be monitored [4] - The importance of diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in the late economic cycle, with a recommendation for alternative strategies and diverse investment styles [5][6] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The macro outlook for 2026 is positive, with strong performance expected in the first half, but potential slowdown in the second half. Growth will be more diversified, supported by fiscal policy and AI integration [4] Market Valuation - Current valuations are high, with the S&P Shiller PE ratio at its highest level since the tech bubble, but macro factors support these valuations, indicating that high valuations alone do not signal a market downturn [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for early 2026 favors risk assets, particularly equities, while maintaining neutral positions in bonds and commodities. Credit is underweighted due to low credit spreads [2] - The report highlights the need for selective and cautious approaches in spread trading and credit investments, recommending an overweight in equities to navigate the current economic environment [7] Sector and Regional Trends - Different regions are driven by various factors, with the U.S. led by technology, while value stocks are recovering in Europe. The report notes a balanced dynamic across sectors, creating opportunities for alpha generation [8] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to see a divergence in returns, with gold projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel [18]