黑色建材日报 2026-01-16-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. Although the previous commodity market sentiment was good, it is sensitive to marginal news. Be vigilant against market rumors and strengthen information verification. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and it is in a policy window period. Focus on the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - For iron ore, overseas shipments are entering the off - season, supply pressure may ease marginally, iron water has limited resumption of production, and inventory structural problems remain unsolved. With a warm commodity market atmosphere, prices are supported. It is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the long - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The future market is mainly affected by the direction of the black sector and cost - pushing and supply - contraction factors. Pay attention to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10] - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high - volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and downstream inventory is low with a certain tendency to replenish. Prices are likely to oscillate in the current range [16] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is difficult to change significantly, facing inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to be under pressure, and pay attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [19] - For polysilicon, after the release of negative sentiment, prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to actual spot transactions and official policies [22] - For glass, with the decline in daily melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, prices are boosted, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Observe the digestion of high inventory and actual spot transactions [25] - For soda ash, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The overall pattern is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3160 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2404 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 6339 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3307 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%). The registered warehouse receipts increased by 21259 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 530 lots. The Shanghai summary price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Lecong summary price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has improved, but inventory de - stocking is slow; the apparent demand for rebar has increased significantly, production is at a medium level, and inventory is basically flat. The black - series is in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and pay attention to hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.97% (- 8.00), and positions decreased by 10286 lots to 65.24 million lots. The weighted positions were 99.83 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 820 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments are declining, with a large decline in Brazilian shipments. Near - end arrivals are increasing. Demand: The average daily hot - metal output has declined, and the steel mill profitability rate has risen to nearly 40%. Inventory: Port inventory is accumulating, and steel mill import ore inventory is increasing but still at a low level. Prices are expected to be supported and oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 15, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.84% at 5870 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.41% at 5610 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 240 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is affected by the black sector direction, manganese ore cost - pushing, and supply - contraction factors [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 15, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.75% at 1187.5 yuan/ton. The Shanxi low - sulfur main - coking coal price increased, and the Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal price decreased. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.37% at 1745 yuan/ton. The Rizhao Port and Lvliang coke prices remained unchanged [12] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and downstream inventory is low with a certain tendency to replenish. Prices are likely to oscillate in the current range [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (- 25). The weighted contract positions decreased by 3024 lots to 365402 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged. Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 48670 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 275). The weighted contract positions decreased by 1367 lots to 86469 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [18][20] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: Supply - side improvement is insufficient, demand is weak, and it is facing inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to be under pressure. Polysilicon: After the release of negative sentiment, prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to actual spot transactions and official policies [19][22] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1086 yuan/ton, down 0.91% (- 10). The North China and Central China spot prices remained unchanged. The weekly inventory decreased by 250.50 million cases (- 4.51%). Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1193 yuan/ton, down 2.37% (- 29). The Shahe heavy - soda price decreased by 19 yuan. The weekly inventory increased by 0.23 million tons [24][26] Strategy Views - Glass: With the decline in daily melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, prices are boosted, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Observe the digestion of high inventory and actual spot transactions. Soda ash: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The overall pattern is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [25][27]