外贸加速回暖，人民币运行区间上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to be range - bound and may show stronger characteristics. The current economic situation shows that the economic expectation gap is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is neutral. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may test the 6.90 - 6.95 range. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the Put - side volatility slightly decreasing [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The value of the counter - cyclical factor has shifted downwards, and the negative adjustment signal has strengthened. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro 3.2.1.1 Interest Rate and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on January 7 was 783.5 billion (- 89.2 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion (- 65.6 billion) [16]. 3.2.1.2 US Economic Data - Employment authority has declined, non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and inflation in November was lower than expected, supporting subsequent interest rate cuts. Economic expectations have been revised upwards, with a slight decline in PMI and a slight increase in real estate sales in November [18]. 3.2.1.3 Fed Chair Candidates - Trump has no plan to replace Powell for now and is open to the choice of the next Fed chair. Different candidates have different views on interest rate policies, such as Christopher Waller advocating for a cautious interest rate cut, Kevin Warsh calling for a large - scale balance sheet reduction to create room for rate cuts [19][20]. 3.2.1.4 Inflation - The CPI performance in the US in December was moderate, with a slight increase in the contribution of food and core commodities, a decline in the contribution of crude oil, and a decline in the contribution of core services. The pricing of interest rate cuts changed little after the data release [21]. 3.2.1.5 Non - farm Payrolls - In December, non - farm payrolls showed a K - shaped divergence. Employment in trade, transportation, construction, and manufacturing decreased, while employment in services, education, and healthcare continued to increase, and government employment also increased. The unemployment rate was affected by different factors, and the employment environment was deteriorating [24]. 3.2.1.6 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but fixed - asset investment faced pressure and consumption slowed down. Against the background of increasing pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [25]. 3.2.1.7 December Exports - The characteristics of re - exports continued. Exports to the US and Canada decreased, while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa increased. Items such as automobiles, mechanical and electrical products, integrated circuits, and high - tech products showed obvious resilience, as did exports of raw materials such as aluminum and steel [27]. 3.2.2 2026 Monetary Policy - The policy focuses on reducing the re - lending rate by 25BP, setting up a 1 - trillion RMB re - loan for private enterprises, adding 400 billion RMB in technological transformation quotas, and reducing inventory of commercial real estate. The policy features "moderate in aggregate and precise in structure", and the RMB exchange rate maintains strong resilience supported by high - level foreign exchange reserves and stable settlement - sales surpluses [30]. 3.3 Core Content Interpretation 3.3.1 Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In December 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement was significantly higher than its sale. The annual pattern was a net settlement. The settlement rate of received foreign exchange rose to 61.01%, and the purchase rate of paid - out foreign exchange fell to 55.41% [35][36]. - In December 2025, the bank's agent for overseas receipts was higher than payments, showing a surplus. The annual situation was a net inflow. In the current account, the contribution of goods trade was significant, increasing from about 726.66 billion in November to about 1259.22 billion in December, strongly driving the surplus in receipts and payments [43]. 3.3.2 Overall View - The RMB is expected to be range - bound against the US dollar. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may show stronger characteristics, and there is a possibility of testing the 6.90 - 6.95 range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3.3.3 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there will be important events such as Fed chair candidate announcements, FOMC meetings, government work reports, and national two - sessions. These events will affect policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, as well as lead to tariff games and changes in the Fed's stance [50].