宏观经济点评：货币宽松预期边际加强

Group 1: Credit Growth - In December, social financing increased by 2.2 trillion RMB, exceeding the expected 1.8 trillion RMB but lower than the previous 2.5 trillion RMB[2] - RMB loans grew by 910 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 679.4 billion RMB and significantly higher than the previous 390 billion RMB[2] - Corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 580 billion RMB, indicating a recovery trend[2] Group 2: Loan Structure - Short-term corporate loans accounted for 31% of total corporate loans in 2025, up 13 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a shift towards short-term financing[2] - Long-term corporate loans recorded 330 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 290 billion RMB, but still below seasonal expectations[2] - Residential loans showed a negative growth of 916 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.416 trillion RMB, reflecting weak demand in the housing market[2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - M2 growth rate increased to 8.5%, driven by a significant rise in non-bank deposits, while M1 growth rate decreased to 3.8%[4] - The central bank indicated a potential for 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with a current space of 1.3 percentage points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments[4] - Structural monetary policy rate cuts of 25 basis points were implemented, aimed at supporting key sectors and reducing banks' funding costs[4]