黑色建材日报：市场成交偏弱，铁矿小幅回落-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [8] 2. Core Views - The market trading volume is weak, with steel prices fluctuating, iron ore prices slightly declining, and coking coal and coke prices moving sideways. Thermal coal prices are expected to trade in a narrow range due to a stalemate in port trading [1][3][5][8]. - For steel, the fundamentals of building materials have slightly weakened, while those of plates have limited contradictions. The short - term price depends on cost changes [1]. - For iron ore, the supply is relatively sufficient, but the demand has slightly declined. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the price will move sideways in the short term [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is stable, but the coke enterprises are facing losses and may raise prices. The steel enterprises are close to the break - even point. The short - term price trend is sideways [5][6]. - For thermal coal, the downstream demand has not met expectations, and the price is expected to trade in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Categories Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3160 yuan/ton and 3307 yuan/ton respectively. The output of the five major steel products has slightly increased this week, the inventory has decreased, and the consumption has increased significantly. The national building materials trading volume is 8.62 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The fundamentals of building materials have slightly weakened, and the downstream winter storage and restocking have been delayed, leading to a rebound in inventory. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. The short - term price depends on cost changes [1]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore has slightly declined. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports are weak. The total trading volume of iron ore in major ports nationwide is 98.1 tons, a 20.29% decrease from the previous period. The total trading volume of forward spot is 106.0 tons, a 5.02% decrease. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills this week is 228 tons, a decrease of 1.49 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports is 16555 tons, a 1.7% increase [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply at ports is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The short - term profitability of steel mills has recovered, but the daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the total inventory is rising. However, due to the weakening of the liquidity of some port supplies, the ore price remains high, and steel mills have insufficient short - term restocking willingness [3]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke have moved sideways. The price of coal for blast furnace injection is stable, and the coking profit has been repaired. The supply in the production area has steadily increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rapidly recovered, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at around 1070 - 1080 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The overall supply of coke is stable. Affected by the rising price of coking coal at the cost end, the losses of coke enterprises have intensified, and there are production restrictions. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, and coke plants may raise prices in the near future. For coking coal, the supply is increasing steadily, suppressing the market. The inventory at ports and in factories is high, and the pressure to reduce inventory is large [6]. - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, the prices are still rising and falling. The downstream non - power terminals are still restocking on a need - basis. The demand for high - quality coal is high, and the inventory is decreasing, with the price rising steadily. The speculative demand is poor, and there is more resistance to high - priced coal. The inventory of coal mines with relatively poor coal quality is accumulating, and they are selling at a reduced grade. At ports, the market is loosening, and traders are willing to sell at a reduced price before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory, but the actual trading volume is small. The imported coal market is relatively stable [8]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The coal price has been rising slightly recently, but the downstream demand has not met expectations, and the downstream is more wait - and - see. The coal supply has high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8].