工业硅、多晶硅日报（2026年1月16日）-20260116

Research Views - On January 15, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,730 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.46%. The position decreased by 4,469 lots to 231,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,628 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 48,670 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.38%. The position decreased by 641 lots to 47,798 lots. The price of N-type recycled silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 54,750 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 6,080 yuan/ton [2]. - Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot-futures traders. The inventory of manufacturers is gradually shifting to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory is increasing [2]. - Recently, the cost side has been relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a volatile situation. There have been frequent news of anti-involution and industry self-discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown before the Spring Festival in Xinjiang, the production areas have started pre-festival rush operations, resulting in concentrated warehouse receipt registrations, and the overheated speculative sentiment has cooled down. The premium space above polysilicon is limited [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 8,730 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,630 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable, with no changes in prices for different regions and grades such as non-oxygenated 553 silicon, oxygenated 553 silicon, and 421 silicon [4]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 11,139 tons. The weekly inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons. The inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, while the inventory at Tianjin Port and Kunming Port remained unchanged. The factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons, and the total social inventory remained unchanged at 457,850 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 275 yuan/ton to 48,670 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract remained unchanged at 49,300 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, including N-type mixed polycrystalline silicon material, N-type recycled polycrystalline silicon material, N-type granular silicon material, and P-type polycrystalline silicon dense material [4]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 275 yuan to 6,080 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 60 tons to 4,560 tons. The weekly inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 12,000 tons to 132,900 tons. The factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 311,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 312,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The price of DMC in the East China market and raw rubber remained unchanged at 14,000 yuan/ton and 14,800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of 107 glue remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and clean coal prices [6][9][11] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16] Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory change of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [18][21] Cost and Profit - Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][28] Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the field of non-ferrous metals research and have received many industry awards [34][35]