Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] Report's Core View - The international oil price experienced its largest single - day decline since October last year after Trump hinted that the US might postpone military action against Iran. With the easing of the Iran situation, the geopolitical premium of crude oil faded, and the oil price is expected to move in a volatile manner. The impact of the US on the Iran issue will continue, but the probability of short - term intensification of the conflict has decreased. The market is also affected by domestic macro - policies and the upcoming Fed interest - rate meeting [1] - For fuel oil, the low - sulfur market will maintain sufficient supply in the short term, and the high - sulfur market has some support. The entry of Venezuelan heavy crude oil may have a negative impact on relevant spreads. The absolute prices of FU and LU will mainly follow the oil price and be affected by geopolitical situations [2] - The asphalt market is driven by the tightening of processing raw materials and the decrease in refinery supply. It is expected to be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation", and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [2] - The polyester sector has回调 due to the decline in oil prices. With the low processing margin, polyester factories will have maintenance in January - March, and terminal industries will have a concentrated holiday during the Spring Festival. So, the polyester market will be in a short - term volatile callback [4] - The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere but may be pressured by inventory accumulation after the low - production season, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [4][6] - For methanol, the decline in arrivals in January is offset by the decrease in MTO device load, and the port will face de - stocking pressure. It is expected to maintain a bottom - volatile trend, but the tense Iran situation may increase its volatility [6] - For polyolefins, there will be a slight reduction in supply in January, and demand will recover in the first half of the month and decline in the second half. The inventory is expected to rise in the second half of January, and the price will remain volatile at the bottom [6][7] - For PVC, the supply is at a high - level shock, and domestic demand is slowing down. The 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will put pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. The price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research View - Crude Oil: On Thursday, WTI February contract closed down $2.83 to $59.19 per barrel, a 4.56% drop; Brent March contract closed down $2.76 to $63.76 per barrel, a 4.15% drop; SC2602 closed at 439.2 yuan per barrel, down 12.2 yuan, a 2.70% decline. The market is affected by the Iran situation and domestic and overseas policies, and the oil price is expected to be volatile [1] - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contract FU2603 of fuel oil on the SHFE rose 1.33% to 2586 yuan per ton, and the main contract LU2603 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.48% to 3087 yuan per ton. The fuel oil inventory in Singapore and Fujairah increased. The low - sulfur market has sufficient supply, and the high - sulfur market has some support. The entry of Venezuelan heavy crude may affect spreads [2] - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main contract BU2602 of asphalt on the SHFE rose 1.38% to 3168 yuan per ton. The shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises also increased. The market is driven by raw material tightening and supply reduction, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [2] - Polyester: TA605 closed down 1.33% at 5048 yuan per ton; EG2605 closed down 1.29% at 3817 yuan per ton. Some polyester production devices have maintenance or load - reduction plans. The oil price decline drives the polyester sector to回调, and it will be in a short - term volatile callback [4] - Rubber: On Thursday, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber on the SHFE fell 165 yuan per ton to 15995 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 165 yuan per ton to 12850 yuan per ton. The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere but may be pressured by inventory accumulation [4] - Methanol: The market price of methanol in different regions varies. The arrival in January is expected to decline, and the MTO device load also decreases. The port will face de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [6] - Polyolefins: The prices of different polyolefin products have different trends. The supply will have a slight reduction in January, and the demand will recover in the first half of the month and decline in the second half. The inventory is expected to rise in the second half of January, and the price will remain volatile at the bottom [6][7] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The PVC market prices in different regions have different changes. The supply is at a high - level shock, and domestic demand is slowing down. The price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [7] 2. Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on January 15 and 14, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [8] 3. Market News - Trump hinted that the US might postpone military action against Iran, leading to the largest single - day decline in international oil prices since October last year [1][10] - Multiple Fed officials hinted at a possible interest - rate cut in the next policy meeting, but the market generally expects the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged in the January 27 - 28 meeting [10] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [12][14][16][18][20][23][24][27] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [29][32][36][37][39][40] 4.3 Inter - Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc [42][44][47][50][52][54][56] 4.4 Inter - Product Spreads - The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, etc [58][62][63][64] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, etc [66][68] 5. Research Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional achievements in the energy and chemical research field [71][72][73][74] 6. Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [76]
光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月16日）-20260116
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-01-16 04:03