渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.16）-20260116

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In December 2025, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing the previous growth of 5.9% and market expectations of 3.1%. Imports rose by 5.7%, up from 1.9% previously, exceeding the expected 0.9% [2] - The trade surplus reached $114.138 billion, compared to $111.676 billion previously, marking the third-highest level in history [2] - The export structure is improving, with significant contributions from high-tech and integrated circuit products, which accounted for over 6 percentage points of overall export growth [2] - The outlook for early 2026 suggests continued strong export performance due to favorable external conditions, including US-China trade relations and increased AI investment [3] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to undergo a phase of consolidation, with a narrowing range of active themes as the market adjusts after significant gains [4][5] - The central economic work conference has set a tone for capital market development, indicating a gradual expansion of public equity fund sizes and a balanced investment environment [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics, driven by ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic technology substitution [6] Group 3: Computer Industry Research - The computer industry saw a 13.38% increase in the Shenwan Computer sector from January 8 to January 14, 2026, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth [7] - The upcoming release of the DeepSeek V4 model is anticipated to accelerate the penetration of AI applications, with significant improvements in AI computing capabilities expected from new chip platforms [8][11] - The integration of AI technology into manufacturing is being promoted by government policies, which may enhance the application of AI across various industrial sectors [11]