央行结构性降息落地，伊朗局势暂时降温

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Inflation is a prominent narrative. China will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." The central bank has cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to float bidirectionally [2] - There is a certain differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. Overseas economic climate has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery, and its economic data in December is generally better. The US economic data is mixed, with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts [3] - Currently, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. There are opportunities for low-valued commodities to catch up in price. Pay attention to the short - term emotional risks of the new energy sector, the development of the Iranian situation, the "anti-involution" space of chemical products, weather conditions for agricultural products, and opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti-involution." The 2026 PBOC work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and cut the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools. The geopolitical situation between Iran and Venezuela has tightened, and the CME will change the margin setting method for precious metal contracts [2] - There is a differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. China's foreign trade is improving, with exports and imports in December exceeding expectations. The official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December are in the expansion range. The US economic data is mixed, with the ISM manufacturing index falling, non - farm payrolls missing expectations, but overall economic improvement according to the Fed's Beige Book. There are increasing expectations of US interest rate cuts [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints, and aluminum and nickel are preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term emotional risks in the new energy sector. The US will "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and the Iranian situation has temporarily cooled. There is "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and agricultural products are affected by weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - As of the end of December, M2, M1, and M0 have different year - on - year growth rates, and there is a net cash injection for the whole year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans and RMB loans has increased year - on - year [7] - The PBOC has cut the interest rates of re - loans and rediscounts by 0.25 percentage points since January 19, 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [7] - The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. Fed officials have different stances on interest rates. Trump has no current plan to fire Powell, but the situation is still uncertain. The Iranian situation has temporarily cooled, and international oil prices have fallen [7] - Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has decided to form a new political party with the Komeito Party [7]