光大期货煤化工商品日报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea: The urea futures price showed a firm oscillation on Thursday, with the main 05 - contract closing at 1801 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase. The supply is expected to rise with the potential resumption of gas - based enterprises. Demand sentiment has slightly declined, but there is still support from winter - storage fertilizers, industrial downstream demand, and pre - spring plowing demand. The price may continue to be strong at high levels, but the high price may suppress market purchasing sentiment. The final result of the Indian tender this week will affect the domestic market. It is recommended to take a high - level and strong approach in the short term, and pay attention to the previous high - point pressure level of the main contract [2]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price weakened on Thursday, with the main 05 - contract closing at 1193 yuan/ton, a 2.05% decrease. The industry's operating rate and weekly output have increased, and the supply is continuously recovering. Demand follow - up is average, and the reduction in downstream float and photovoltaic capacity suppresses the rigid demand for soda ash. The inventory has increased slightly, and the supply pressure remains high. The futures price will continue to have a wide - range oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking intensity of mid - and downstream enterprises [2]. - Glass: The glass futures price showed a weak oscillation on Thursday, with the main 05 - contract closing at 1086 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease. The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand follow - up has slightly slowed down. After this round of restocking, the demand support will be limited. The inventory has decreased, but the rigid demand is insufficient, and the inventory reduction is mainly due to the transfer of goods to the mid - and downstream. The futures price will have a wide - range oscillation, and the market will be under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Urea - On January 15, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 13,355, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 100 [5]. - On January 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 202,800 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous working day and 16,500 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 86.14%, a 2.96 - percentage - point increase from 83.18% in the same period last year [5]. - On January 14, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased, such as Shandong at 1,760 yuan/ton (+20), and Henan at 1,760 yuan/ton (+10) [5]. - On January 14, the urea enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons (-3.53%) from the previous week [6]. - Soda Ash & Glass - On January 15, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,563, a decrease of 250 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,291. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,048, a decrease of 10 from the previous trading day [8]. - On January 15, the spot prices of soda ash varied by region. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton [8]. - As of the week of January 15, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.82%, a 2.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The output was 775,300 tons, a 21,700 - ton (+2.88%) increase from the previous week [8]. - On January 15, the soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons (+0.66%) from Monday and 2,300 tons (+0.15%) from last Thursday [8]. - On January 14, the average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 150,700 tons per day, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - On January 15, the float glass enterprise inventory was 53.013 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes (-4.51%) from the previous week, and an increase of 20.89% from the same period last year. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous week [9]. Chart Analysis The report presents multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends and price differences of related products. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [11][14][23]. Team Introduction The resource product team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different research areas and have rich experience and many honors in the industry [26].