黑色商品日报（2026年1月16日）-20260116

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are all expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. For steel, the supply - demand data is moderately strong, and the loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. For iron ore, the supply and demand are intertwined. For coking coal, the increase in downstream procurement supports the price. For coke, the cost increase and demand for replenishment by steel mills co - exist. For manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon, the cost and pre - holiday stocking have a certain supporting effect, but they are mainly affected by the overall trend of the black commodity sector[1][3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Steel - The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3160 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 0.63 million lots in positions. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume was low. The national rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.99 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and 26 million tons in the lunar calendar. The social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons to 2.9541 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.21 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and an increase of 17.2 million tons in the lunar calendar. The factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons to 1.4266 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase of 17.29 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and 21.13 million tons in the lunar calendar. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.38 million tons to 1.9034 billion tons week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase of 5.19 million tons in the Gregorian calendar and a decrease of 29.24 million tons in the lunar calendar. The short - term rebar price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range[1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 fell to 813 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and a decrease of 10,000 lots in positions. The prices of port spot mainstream varieties decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while those from other countries increased, resulting in a slight decrease in global shipments. The iron - making water production decreased by 1.49 million tons to 2.2801 billion tons week - on - week. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 2.44 million tons to 172.89 billion tons, and the steel mill inventory continued to increase by 2.72 million tons to 92.62 billion tons. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.75%, with an increase of 4546 lots in positions. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased. The coking coal production is steadily recovering, and the downstream's enthusiasm for inquiring and purchasing has increased. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1745 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a decrease of 1163 lots in positions. The spot price at the port was stable. Due to the increase in raw coal prices, the cost of coking enterprises has increased, and the overall production enthusiasm is not high. However, the steel mills' demand for coke replenishment has increased. The coke price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term[1]. 3.1.5 Manganese - Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese - silicon futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5870 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 4823 lots to 243,800 lots. The market price of manganese - silicon in each region was basically flat. The northern mainstream steel mills' tender quantity in January was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2300 tons month - on - month, and the first inquiry price was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The weekly production of manganese - silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand during the steel tender period is supported, but the duration may be limited. The manganese ore price has increased steadily. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has decreased from a high level but is still significantly higher year - on - year. The short - term manganese - silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate with the overall black commodity sector[3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.27% month - on - month, and the main contract positions decreased by 1622 lots to 215,000 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in each region was basically flat. The overall production of ferrosilicon is relatively stable, and the weekly production is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The procurement demand for ferrosilicon is supported during the steel tender period. The post - holiday electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia have decreased slightly, and the production cost has decreased week - on - week. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises has changed week - on - week, and the inventory in Inner Mongolia is relatively high. The short - term ferrosilicon price is expected to fluctuate with the overall black commodity sector[3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides detailed data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between varieties[4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, as well as the profit charts of rebar[6][16][25][41][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications[52].