原油&燃料油数据日报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have dropped significantly. Geopolitical situation is the main short - term driver of oil prices, and the Iran situation has cooled rapidly. The US cancelled its planned military strike on Iran at the last minute. The market generally expects an oversupply of international crude oil. The IEA predicts a record - high increase in global crude oil inventories in Q1 2026, with a possible increase of 5 million barrels. Short - term oil prices will mainly fluctuate widely, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - As of the week ending January 14, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventories increased by 65,000 barrels to a two - week high of 25,473,000 barrels. The supply of fuel oil in Asia in January is still sufficient, exceeding 5 million tons. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil spot differential has turned into a premium, showing a certain degree of recovery. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a pattern of "loose supply and weak demand", and the operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Fundamentals: Geopolitical situation affects short - term oil prices. The Iran situation has cooled, but the Middle East situation may become more tense. The market expects an oversupply of crude oil, and the IEA predicts a record - high increase in global crude oil inventories in Q1 2026 [3]. - Operation Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [3]. - Futures Prices: SC crude oil closed at 445.5 yuan/barrel, down 0.6 yuan or 0.13% from the previous value; WTI crude oil was at 61.02 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 65.39 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - Spread Data: SC - WTI spread was 2.51 yuan/barrel, down 0.03 yuan or 1.39%; SC - Brent spread was - 1.86 yuan/barrel, up 0.03 yuan or 1.88%; Brent - WTI spread was 4.37 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - Spot Prices: Oman crude oil was at 62.49 dollars/barrel, up 0.61 dollars or 0.99%; Russian ESPO was at 50.58 dollars/barrel, up 0.05 dollars or 0.10%; Brent Dtd was at 68.76 dollars/barrel, up 2.97 dollars or 4.51% [4]. - US EIA Data: Crude oil commercial inventories increased by 3,391 thousand barrels to 422,447 thousand barrels, up 0.81%; gasoline inventories increased by 8,977 thousand barrels to 251,013 thousand barrels, up 3.71%; distillate inventories decreased by 29 thousand barrels to 129,244 thousand barrels, down 0.02%; US production decreased by 58 thousand barrels/day to 13,753 thousand barrels/day, down 0.42%; refined oil inventories increased by 1,482 thousand barrels to 47,722 thousand barrels, up 3.21% [4]. - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 3,464,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,900 to 74,550, down 6.17%; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 18,280, unchanged [4]. Fuel Oil - Fundamentals: Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of fuel oil in Asia in January is sufficient. The low - sulfur fuel oil market shows a recovery, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has a pattern of "loose supply and weak demand" [3]. - Operation Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [3]. - Futures Prices: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,586 yuan/ton, unchanged; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,098 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.36% [3]. - Spread Data: FU - SC spread was - 47 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or - 1.26%; LU - SC spread was 31 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 3.51%; LU - FU spread was 512 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 2.15% [4]. - Spot Prices: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 359 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars or 3.76%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 435.5 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars or 1.63% [4]. - Singapore ESG Data: Fuel oil inventories increased by 850 thousand barrels to 25,559 thousand barrels, up 3.44% [4]. Macro and Other Data - Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: The US dollar index was 99.1842, down 0.1089 or 0.11%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.18%, down 0.03 percentage points or 0.72%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged [4]. - Macro Indexes: The Baltic BDI index was 1,566, down 42 or 2.61%; the crude oil freight rate BDTI index was 1,410, up 63 or 4.68%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI index was 777, up 68 or 8.75% [4].