果蔬品日报：苹果交易重心转向下游，红枣走货不及预期-20260116

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Report's Core View - The trading focus of apples is shifting downstream, with slow sales in the market and limited trading volume of fruit - growers' goods. The price of apples is affected by factors such as low inventory, weak demand, and competition from alternative fruits. For red dates, the acquisition in the production area is basically completed, and the market is in a state of oversupply. The key is to focus on downstream consumption and inventory reduction [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9807 yuan/ton, a change of - 127 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.28%. Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis of Qixia was AP05 + - 1607, a change of + 127 from the previous day; the spot basis of Luochuan was AP05 + - 1407, a change of + 127 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the production areas, the transaction of fruit - growers' goods is generally average. In Shaanxi, the price of general fruit - growers' goods in some areas has slightly loosened. In Gansu, the packaging and shipping are relatively stable. In Shandong, the transaction is average. The sales in the apple sales areas are slow, and there is still an impact from competing fruits. It is expected that the Spring Festival stocking will increase this week, with the price of high - quality goods remaining stable and the price of general fruit - growers' goods being stable and weak [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated weakly. The trading atmosphere in the production areas was light, and the current focus is gradually shifting to the demand side. Although the inquiries for fruit - growers' goods have increased, the actual trading volume is still limited. The overall quality of apples this year is not as good as in previous years, but the purchase price is relatively high, leading to a strong reluctance to sell. The Spring Festival stocking consumption situation needs to be followed up. The apple market last week was characterized by cold transactions in the main production areas and a slowdown in the sales area. The inventory in the cold storage is at a low level, and the inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent. The low excellent fruit rate supports the price [3] Strategy - Neutral. Continuously pay attention to the game between low inventory and weak demand and the production data after the bagging stage [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 9040 yuan/ton, a change of - 90 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.99%. Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was CJ05 + - 930, a change of - 70 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of gray dates in Xinjiang production areas is basically completed. The prices in different regions vary. In the Hebei sales area, the processing plants mainly trade their own goods, and the market price is expected to be stable in the short term. In the Guangdong market, the arrival volume is 8 trucks, the market is full, and the price is stable [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition in the production area is basically completed, and the market focus is shifting to downstream consumption. The inventory reduction progress is slow, and the market is in a state of oversupply. With the approach of the traditional sales season in December, the terminal consumption and inventory reduction progress need to be focused on. The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the production situation in each area is clear. The market has entered the Spring Festival stocking stage, and the inventory is decreasing while the arrival volume is increasing [7] Strategy - Neutral [8]