石油沥青日报：局部现货小跌，成本端变数仍存-20260116

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market has limited contradictions, with the asphalt futures showing a slight decline and the spot price generally stable, except for small drops in North China and Shandong. The asphalt market has shifted to a volatile trend after pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply. The expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply to domestic asphalt refineries is gradually being realized, and there is still support at the cost - end. However, the key lies in the increase in cost and the change in asphalt yield after refineries adjust raw material oil types, and continuous attention is needed due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation [1]. - The trading strategy suggests being cautiously bullish on the single - side, buying the main BU contract on dips, and allowing early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit. For the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread). There are no strategies for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 199,517 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 159,746 lots, a decrease of 39,400 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3406 - 3500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3030 - 3240 yuan/ton; South China: 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton; East China: 3180 - 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bullish, buy the main BU contract on dips, and allow early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit [2]. - Inter - period: Buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread) [2]. - Cross - varieties: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2]. Charts - The report contains multiple charts showing various aspects of the asphalt market, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production, consumption, and inventory levels [3].