聚烯烃日报：地缘局势缓和油价转跌，聚烯烃涨势放缓-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE is rated neutral, and PP is rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - For PE, with the easing of the geopolitical situation in Iran, international oil prices have fallen from their highs. There is still an expectation of a decline in oil prices due to weak demand, weakening the cost - side support and slowing down the upward trend of the PE market. Supply - side maintenance has increased, and the demand side remains in the off - season. Although the upstream inventory has been transferred to traders, the de - stocking pressure persists [3] - For PP, short - term market sentiment has improved, and the expectation of supply reduction and cost - side support have boosted the price. The supply side has co - existed with maintenance and restart, and there is still an expectation of PDH device maintenance. The demand side has seen improved replenishment willingness but limited new orders. The overall inventory level is still high, and the sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance [4] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6785 yuan/ton (- 35), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6592 yuan/ton (+2). The LL spot price in North China is 6750 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 6880 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 6440 yuan/ton (+20). The LL basis in North China is - 35 yuan/ton (+35), in East China is 95 yuan/ton (+35), and the PP basis in East China is - 152 yuan/ton (+18) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 81.6% (- 2.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%). The PE oil - based production profit is 133.0 yuan/ton (+49.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 567.0 yuan/ton (+49.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 648.0 yuan/ton (+167.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - No specific data on non - standard price spreads are provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is 259.8 yuan/ton (+1.0), the PP import profit is - 242.2 yuan/ton (+166.9), and the PP export profit is - 57.5 US dollars/ton (- 21.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (- 1.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (- 0.8%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (- 0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream plastic petrochemical inventory has been de - stocked, and the inventory has been transferred to middle - stream traders. The downstream factories have carried out periodic replenishment, but there is still de - stocking pressure for PE under high supply. For PP, the upstream is actively de - stocking, the inventory has been transferred to traders, and the overall inventory level is still high [3][4]