燃料油日报：地缘不确定性增加，市场受到扰动-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by geopolitical uncertainties and commodity index fund rebalancing. Oil prices are short - term volatile and bullish, but the direction for FU and LU is unclear due to news - related fluctuations [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil have both long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. The crack spread in the US Gulf drags down the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets, while concerns about Iranian supply bring emotional premiums [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there are limited contradictions and driving forces. Shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria are increasing, but the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing some support [1] - The short - term outlook for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is volatile and bullish, with attention on the development of the Iranian situation. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.33% at 2,586 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.48% at 3,087 yuan/ton [1] - Due to the escalation of the situation in Iran and commodity index fund rebalancing, oil prices are short - term volatile and bullish, but the news can cause repeated market fluctuations [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil involve a mix of long and short factors. The US Gulf crack spread has a negative impact on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets, while concerns about Iranian supply add an emotional premium [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there are limited contradictions and drivers. Shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria are increasing due to changes in refinery device status, and the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing support [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatile and bullish, focus on the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatile and bullish, focus on the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - No strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options are provided [2] Figures - There are multiple figures showing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in both spot and futures markets, as well as those of domestic fuel oil (FU and LU) futures [3]