新能源及有色金属日报：关税事宜再起，铜价仍陷震荡格局-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Although domestic demand is affected by high copper prices, subsidies for some end - products in 2026 will continue, TC is still at a low level, and mine supply is tight. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the range between 99,600 yuan/ton and 101,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Comex inventory [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 15, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 104,350 yuan/ton and closed at 102,810 yuan/ton, a - 1.26% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 103,030 yuan/ton and closed at 102,860 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decline from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 80 - 320 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract, with an average premium of 200 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The spot price range was 102,160 - 102,990 yuan/ton. The main 2602 contract traded between 101,530 - 103,500 yuan/ton. The cross - month spread was between Contango 380 - 200 yuan, and the monthly import loss was about 1,560 - 1,770 yuan/ton. Shanghai's inventory increased by 17,400 tons compared to January 12, mainly in the form of warehouse receipts [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: On January 14, the US government announced that President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and their derivatives [3] - Economic Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four - week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two - year low [3] - Fed Chair News: Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and he tends to choose the next Fed chair between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [3] 3.2 Supply - related Information 3.2.1 Mine End - Global key mineral supply chains are under increasing pressure. The demand for copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths is growing faster than new supply. About $5 trillion of cumulative investment is needed by 2035 to meet key mineral demand, and current exploration spending is 40% - 50% lower than required. The average cycle from discovery to first production is 16 years. Codelco's Ministo Hales copper mine's expansion project to extend its mining life to 2054 has obtained environmental approval, with an investment of $2.8 billion and a planned increase in annual output from 170,000 tons to 200,000 tons [4] 3.2.2 Smelting and Import - Elemental Group plans to invest $800 million in two core projects, with two - thirds for a copper smelting and refining plant and the rest for a power battery metal refinery. The projects are named "Polvolt" and have received EU and Polish government subsidies [5] 3.3 Consumption Information - China's unforged copper and copper products imports in December 2025 were 437,000 tons, up from 427,000 tons in November. The cumulative imports in 2025 were 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [5] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - LME warehouse receipts changed by 75,000 tons to 141,125 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 13,378 tons to 162,717 tons. On January 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 320,900 tons, a change of 27,500 tons from the previous week [6]