铝价快速上涨抑制消费可能产生负反馈

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid rise in aluminum prices may suppress consumption and create a short - term negative feedback loop. Although the short - term fundamentals show limited positive signs, macro - factors will drive long - term price increases [6]. - The spot price of alumina is slightly declining, with weakening market sentiment. The cost support is weakening, the supply is in surplus, and there is no strong support for price increases [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - On January 15, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, a change of - 480 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 130 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, with the spot premium/discount changing - 50 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,220 yuan/ton, a change of - 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,610 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,780 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 766,880 lots, and the holding volume was 346,831 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 736,000 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 138,083 tons, a change of 4,518 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 490,000 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 15, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,804 yuan/ton, closed at 2,789 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton or - 0.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,817 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,761 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 618,962 lots, and the holding volume was 508,785 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 15, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is fluctuating at a high level, suppressing consumption and potentially creating a short - term negative feedback. The current stockpiling speed is fast due to the late Spring Festival this year, and it is difficult for prices to decline in the short term. However, macro - factors are the main drivers for long - term price increases [6]. Alumina - The spot market price is slightly declining, the market sentiment is weakening, and the basis is narrowing. The cost support is weakening, and the supply is in surplus, with the possibility of inventory over - capacity in the future [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Aluminum - neutral; Alumina - cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]