液氯价格强势，PVC烧碱库存累积

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. Although there is still resilience in export orders before April due to the cancellation of export tax rebates starting from April 1st, the supply is abundant, the downstream start - up is expected to decline, the inventory is at a high level, and the cost - end profit is low. The supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed after April [3]. - The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak. The spot price is stable with a downward trend, affected by low - price warehouse receipts. The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, the export orders are sluggish, and the inventory in Shandong continues to accumulate [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4868 yuan/ton (-10); the East China basis is -228 yuan/ton (+10); the South China basis is -248 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+0); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is -85 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -662 yuan/ton (-29); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -138 yuan/ton (+54); the PVC export profit is -6.2 US dollars/ton (+2.8) [1]. - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.1 tons (-1.7); the social PVC inventory is 56.2 tons (+1.5); the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 80.66% (+0.43%); the start - up rate of PVC ethylene method is 75.48% (-0.21%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 79.08% (+0.23%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+1.7) [1]. Market Analysis - Supply side: Domestic PVC supply is abundant, the start - up rate has rebounded. Two new enterprises are under maintenance this week, and Fujian Wanhua will enter maintenance next week, with a expected slight decline in supply [3]. - Demand side: The downstream start - up has declined slightly. The start - up of pipes and profiles has decreased, while that of films remains flat. There is an expectation of further decline in subsequent start - up. Downstream enterprises purchase on dips, and the trading is light when the market rebounds, with an increase in purchases by hedgers [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level year - on - year [3]. - Cost: The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has been somewhat repaired due to the slight rebound of caustic soda and PVC spot, but it is still low year - on - year. The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are stable, and their profits are still in a loss state [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Sideways [4]. - Inter - period: Go long on the V03 - 05 spread when it is low [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2057 yuan/ton (-36); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -1 yuan/ton (-8) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 658 yuan/ton (-14); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong is 1031 yuan/ton (-44); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 584.0 yuan/ton (-3.8); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -322.95 yuan/ton (-43.75); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 51.21 tons (+1.70); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (-0.18); the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.70% (+0.10%) [2]. - Downstream start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.76% (-1.33%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis - Supply side: The overall start - up is at a high level, the price of liquid caustic soda is declining, the willingness of chlor - alkali enterprises to support the price of liquid chlorine is increasing, the start - up load of the liquid chlorine downstream has increased, the price of liquid chlorine has risen, and there are few planned maintenance enterprises for caustic soda [3]. - Demand side: The downstream receiving sentiment is general. The start - up of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The main alumina plants in Shandong have lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda to 645 yuan/ton. The non - aluminum sector is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bearish [5]. - Inter - period: Go short on the SH03 - 05 spread when it is high [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].