利率：利率结构优先，总量观望，票息思路占优

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - The central bank mainly announced structural policies, giving positive expectations for future RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, but market confidence is insufficient, and interest rates have rebounded. The clear window for long - positions in the bond market may still need to wait. In a context of loose liquidity, it is recommended to adopt a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term. If supply disruptions and the spring rally of equities do not exceed expectations in the short term, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. Looking further, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored. If the economic and financial data are stabilized by structural monetary policies, the bond market may face a longer period of oscillation [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seven Key Points of the Central Bank Press Conference - Structural Monetary Policy Tools: These are to be implemented first, collaborating with fiscal policies to boost domestic demand and economic structural transformation, ensuring a good start. They have been optimized in price, quantity, and direction. For example, interest rates of various tools were cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the quota for certain loans was increased [7][9] - Aggregate Monetary Policy: Aggregate monetary policy easing still needs time. However, the central bank has conveyed positive expectations, and there is still significant room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts with reduced constraints [10] - Funds: "Guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy rate" is equivalent to "guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy rate". Short - term funds face little pressure, but future broad - credit and growth - stabilizing effects need to be observed [12] - Bonds: The central bank's reasonable range for the 10 - year Treasury yield is around 1.8%, with a difference of about 10BP between the upper and lower limits. The overall bond market interest rate is stable and reasonable [15] - Treasury Bond Trading: If the bond market experiences an excessive decline, the central bank may increase the scale and extend the term of Treasury bond trading to maintain stability [17] - Inflation: The central bank has a positive view on inflation, believing it has shown an upward trend. The possibility of aggregate easing based on price levels in the short term is low [18] - Exchange Rate: The exchange rate is likely to fluctuate and appreciate. In the first half of 2026, it may have a narrow - range oscillation, and it is expected to break through the oscillation range in the second half [19] 2. Outlook on Bonds after the Central Bank Press Conference - The bond market's clear long - position window may still need to wait. In a loose liquidity environment, a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term is more important. If short - term factors do not exceed expectations, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. In the long run, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored [2][21] - Currently, short - term credit carry is more cost - effective, with lower fluctuations. For long - term bonds, large - scale banks are optimistic, while non - bank institutions are cautious. The key lies in whether short - sellers in the trading market are cleared and whether the liability side returns to stability. For certificates of deposit, they also have certain investment value as they remain oscillating slightly above 1.6% [22]