研究所日报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The central bank has rolled out a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, focusing on private SMEs and technological innovation. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with favorable conditions for further loosening of monetary policy [2][3]. 3. Key Points by Category Central Bank Policies - The central bank has lowered the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points. It has increased the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, set up a 1 - trillion - yuan relending quota for private enterprises, and increased the quota for technological innovation and transformation relending by 400 billion yuan. It has also expanded the scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool and reduced the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - Central bank deputy governor Zou Lan stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Conditions for further loosening monetary policy are relatively sufficient, and loose monetary policy is needed to support positive fiscal policies, consumption boost, and investment stabilization [3]. Stock Market Performance On January 15, 2026 - A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2,905.496 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,035.893 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.46% [4]. - Internationally, South Korean, Dutch, and US stocks led the gains, while the Hang Seng Tech Index, Saudi All - Share Index, and Nikkei 225 led the losses. European major stock indices also showed mixed performance [4]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8483%, with a change of - 0.14BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.4154% and 1.5497% respectively [4]. - In terms of sectors, electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the losses [4]. On January 8, 2026 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2,800.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 538.76 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index fell 0.82%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.82% [7]. - US stocks showed mixed performance, and European stocks also had mixed results. The Nikkei 225, Dutch AEX, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index had relatively large declines [8]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8828%, with a change of - 1.6BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.3424% and 1.5261% respectively [9]. - In terms of sectors, national defense and military industry, media, building decoration, and real estate led the gains, while non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, communications, and banks led the losses [10]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 1.848, with a change of - 0.14BP. DR007 was 1.502, with a change of - 6.44BP. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9631, with a change of - 0.12%. The US dollar index was 99.34, with a change of 0.27% [20]. A - Share Market Overview - The total A - share market capitalization was 114.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.62 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year was 28.53 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 31,698.37 billion yuan. The PE(TTM) was 23.34x, and the PB(MRQ) was 6.23x. The margin trading balance decreased by 24,885.74 billion yuan compared to a month ago, and the short - selling balance decreased by 170.96 billion yuan [24]. - Different A - share indices had different performance, with details on their closing prices, trading volumes, daily and weekly changes, and the number of rising and falling stocks [24]. - The latest trading volume was 29,385 billion yuan, and the latest turnover rate was 4.98%. The margin trading balance was 26,806 billion yuan as of January 14, 2026 [25][26]. Industry Performance - The top three sectors in terms of daily increase were electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals. The top three sectors in terms of daily net capital inflow were electronics, banks, and basic chemicals. The top three sectors in terms of late - session net capital inflow were electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry [28][30]. - The top three themes in terms of daily increase were advanced packaging, cobalt mines, and lithography machines [30].