现货价格有所松动，马士基官宣逐步加快恢复苏伊士运河通行

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices have shown some weakness, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the recent volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant contracts [5][6][7] - The shipping industry is taking an important step towards recovery as Maersk resumes navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after two - year disruptions to global maritime trade caused by Houthi attacks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of January 15, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 61,764.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,912.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1719.00, 1202.70, 1421.80, 1524.90, 1111.00, and 1351.00 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes: For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK4 price is $1695/2730, WEEK5 is $1510/2420; HPL's January second - half shipping schedule is $1585/2535, February first - half is $1585/2535. Many other shipping companies' quotes are also provided [1][2][3] - The current estimated first - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately $2700 - 2800/FEU (initially estimated to be around 1900 points). The second - phase corresponds to an SCFIS preliminary estimate of $2500 - 2600/FEU. The final - phase index is currently unclear. If Maersk's WEEK6 price drops to $2200/FEU, the final February contract delivery settlement price may be around 1700 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for different ship sizes from 2026 - 2029 are provided. Overall, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17000+TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4] - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, in February was 277,300 TEU, and in March was 281,600 TEU. February had 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings, and March had 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - Maersk will resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after the security situation stabilizes in the region, and will restart an independently - operated route service MECL on January 26, with the first - voyage ship departing from Salalah Port in Oman [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries, further affecting shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than usual [7]