有色商品日报（2026年1月16日）-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices initially declined and then rebounded, with losses in domestic refined copper imports persisting. The US labor market remains resilient, and a Fed official said there's no reason to cut interest rates. China's central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons, Comex inventories increased by 4,653 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and BC copper increased by 2,098 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream procurement became more cautious, and the export window is gradually opening. Trump said he would not impose tariffs on key minerals like copper. The high - level instability of copper prices is evident, and there is a divergence between foreign capital's bullish sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Spot alumina prices fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina producers have high ore reserves, and costs are under pressure. With the end of environmental controls and increased production, along with imports, inventories are accumulating. The processing end of the photovoltaic industry may maintain resilience, and the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has eased slightly. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount is narrowing [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.04% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.24%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce its nickel ore production target in 2026, which may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap and stimulate nickel price increases. The first - level nickel production has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. Short - term, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Copper: The US labor market data is strong, and China's central bank cut interest rates. Inventory changes vary in different markets. High copper prices make downstream procurement cautious, and the export window is opening. Trump's statement on tariffs and external risks affect copper prices, with a divergence between market sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. - Aluminum: Futures and spot prices of aluminum - related products are weak. Alumina costs are under pressure, inventories are accumulating, and the processing end may maintain resilience, with aluminum prices remaining high and the discount narrowing [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices declined overnight, inventories increased. Indonesia's production cut plan may drive up prices, while increased production and hedging demand pose challenges [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On January 15, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventories decreased by 500 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 1,070 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 3,800 tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 2,107 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 470 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 2,000 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 14,010 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased by 16,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 280 yuan/ton [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,350 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased by 624 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 1,700 tons, and social inventories increased by 2,126 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 6,230 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.8%. LME inventories decreased by 25 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 793 tons, and social inventories decreased by 5,000 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - Tin: The main - contract settlement price increased by 8.3%. LME inventories decreased by 5 tons, SHFE inventories decreased by 1,001 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [12]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [18]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [30]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [37]. Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience and many honors; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both with significant achievements and media exposure [44][45].