现货大体持稳，市场驱动仍有限

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term focus on waiting and observing the situation in Iran [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although overseas supply is marginally tightening and geopolitical tensions are rising, the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG futures price, and the game between warehouse receipts and delivery also disturbs the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply, and the potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market 4430 - 4470 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3910 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4230 - 4410 yuan/ton, East China market 4350 - 4550 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4800 - 5080 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, and South China market 4990 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 604 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) and 599 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4659 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton) and 4620 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 596 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) and 591 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4597 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton) and 4559 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Recently, the overseas market has been strong, and the PG futures price has been oscillating strongly, but it is difficult to break through without a large - scale supply interruption. Due to the non - escalation of the Iranian situation, the futures price fell yesterday, and the spot price remained stable. The market is "strong overseas and weak domestic", and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG futures price. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied, and the potential upside risk comes from geopolitical conflicts. If the Middle East conflict escalates and Iranian LPG supply declines, domestic supply will tighten [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term focus on waiting and observing the situation in Iran; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2]