Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term decline: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [2][5][7] - Short - term adjustment: Palm oil [2][10] - Rebound under pressure: Cotton [2] - Short - term rebound: Live pigs, red dates [2][3] Core Views - Soybean meal: In the first quarter, the estimated imports are expected to decline year - on - year, and the cost of importing US soybeans has increased, making domestic spot prices resistant to decline. The soft inventory of US soybeans, along with increased area, production, and end - of - season inventory, has led to a decline in US soybeans. The continuous decline of rapeseed meal has also dragged down soybean meal. However, supported by cost and stocking demand, the short - term adjustment space is limited [2][6]. - Rapeseed meal: The pressure on rapeseed meal spot inventory has eased, and supply is tight. Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and end - of - season inventory month - on - month, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs have affected the market. After an overnight rebound, attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada meeting from the 13th to the 17th [2][9]. - Palm oil: Domestic spot trading is light. Indonesia's announcement that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 has dampened market bullish sentiment. Fortunately, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month increased month - on - month. Palm oil is in a short - term adjustment phase, and short - long opportunities after the adjustment can be noted [2][11]. - Soybean oil: Domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. Pre - holiday stocking has led to good domestic spot trading. However, the bearish data from the US soybean side and the decline of palm oil have caused soybean oil to decline. Bullish sentiment should be put on hold for now, and attention should be paid to when palm oil stops falling [2][4]. - Rapeseed oil: The market is weak externally and strong internally. The suspension of China - Canada rapeseed trade has tightened domestic supply, but the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs have suppressed market bullish sentiment. After a significant overnight rebound, attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada meeting this week [2]. - Cotton: The January USDA data is moderately bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of external commodities support the cotton market, and the US cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The pressure on raw material inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the market by the further deterioration of textile enterprises' profits. In the short term, the market is expected to rebound under pressure, and in the long - term, prices are expected to continue to recover [2][13][15]. - Red dates: Recently, the spot market has been dull. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption season, market fluctuations have increased. High inventory levels are still putting pressure on the rebound of jujube prices. In a supply - demand surplus situation, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. In the short term, the bearish trend has slowed down, and short - term rebound opportunities can be noted [2][17]. - Live pigs: In mid - to - early January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, affected by the entry of second - fattening pigs and the reduction of group sales volume, the spot market still has some support in the short term, and the supply - side pressure will be postponed to the end of January to February. Attention should be paid to the demand before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, focus on the 03 contract; the 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern; the 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and should be observed [2][3][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, national port soybean inventory was 802.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.8 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 713.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 108.56 million tons. The soybean meal inventory was 104.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.62 million tons [6]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3204.29 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of January 9, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [9]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2289 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2455.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.95 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Palm Oil - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 million tons [11]. - Export: From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased month - on - month [11]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average price was 8633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Cotton - International: The January USDA report had a moderately bullish impact on the global cotton market. In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton production was revised down by 7.8 million tons, consumption was revised up by 6.7 million tons, and the end - of - season inventory was revised down by 32.4 million tons [13]. - Domestic: New cotton picking is basically completed, with a ginned cotton inspection volume exceeding 6.6 million tons. The national total production is expected to increase by 26 million tons to 7.68 million tons. The new - season lint cost is basically locked between 14,600 - 15,200 yuan/ton, and the sales progress has slowed down [14]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract (CF2605) closed at 14,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,972 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Red Dates - Supply and Demand: The acquisition in the production area is almost over, and market supply has increased. It has entered the winter consumption season. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, but still higher than the same period last year [17]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2605) closed at 9040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions remained stable [16]. Live Pigs - Supply: In January, the planned slaughter of sample enterprises is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure on the supply side, especially at the end of January. The number of new - born piglets in December increased, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased [19]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract (lh2603) closed at 11,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 12,740 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [18].
中辉农产品观点-20260116
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2026-01-16 05:13