光大期货软商品日报（2026年1月16日）-20260116

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may have some divergence at the current position and operate in a range, but in the long - term, there are still things to look forward to on the policy side, and there may still be some room for the cotton price to rise [1] - For sugar, the domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with much speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is also significant hedging pressure above the 5300 integer mark. As the holiday approaches, it should be treated with a range - bound and weak outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.57% to 64.62 cents per pound, and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased 0.61% to 14,675 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 6,537 lots to 835,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,550 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical situation is volatile, and the U.S. is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating strongly above 99. The USDA January report slightly reduced the expected output of U.S. cotton in the 2025/26 season, supporting the U.S. cotton price. In the domestic market, the amplitude of Zhengzhou cotton has narrowed recently. The USDA January report slightly increased the expected output and consumption of Chinese cotton in the 2025/26 season, in line with market expectations. The year - on - year clothing exports this year have declined. The raw material inventory reserves of textile enterprises vary greatly, and attention should be paid to their replenishment actions before the festival [1] - Sugar: The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups range from 5320 to 5380 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5190 - 5230 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures price is under pressure due to the decline in energy prices and the significant increase in India's production year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India. The domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is significant hedging pressure above 5300 [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 3 - 5 contract spread is - 15, down 5; the main basis is 1297, up 137. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,727, up 10, and the national spot price is 15,972, up 2 [2] - Sugar: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 3, up 3; the main basis is 100, up 29. The spot price in Nanning is 5360, down 10, and in Liuzhou is 5380, up 10 [2] 3. Market Information - On January 15, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9329, an increase of 493 from the previous trading day, with 1209 valid forecasts [3] - On January 15, the cotton arrival prices in various domestic regions were: 15,727 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,968 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,060 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,168 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On January 15, the comprehensive yarn load was 49, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.5, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 32.7, down 0.1 from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5360 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5380 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14126, an increase of 4387 from the previous trading day, with 755 valid forecasts [4] 4. Chart Analysis - There are various charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][12][14][16] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry research, and has won many awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant awards [21] Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [24]