合成橡胶数据日报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - BR is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the bullish logic remains unchanged; investors should focus on the strategy of going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Overview - The closing price of BR2603.SHF was 12,190 yuan/ton, down 0.49% or 60 yuan/ton from the previous value; the settlement price was 12,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% or 5 yuan/ton [3] - The domestic position volume was 99,183 lots, down 1.39% or 1,393 lots; the trading volume was 150,035 lots, down from 177,031 lots [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 26,330 lots [3] - The month - to - month spreads and cross - month spreads showed various changes, such as the "continuous one - continuous two" spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down 40% [3] - The cross - variety spreads also had different changes, for example, the BR - RU spread was 105 yuan/ton, up 13.73% [3] Raw Material Prices - WTI crude oil price was 58.25 US dollars/barrel, up 1.95 US dollars or 3.46%; Brent crude oil price was 62.70 US dollars/barrel, up 2.31 US dollars or 3.83%; SC crude oil price was 433 yuan/barrel, up 16.50 yuan or 3.96% [3] Factory Prices - As of January 15, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's sales companies' BR9000 was in the range of 12,100 - 12,300 yuan/ton [3] Market Prices - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton [3] - The market prices in different regions such as Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong showed different degrees of change [3] Industry Chain - The ex - factory prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales and PetroChina's main sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton in this cycle [3] - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber production increased significantly due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions at the butadiene end [3] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remained high, and the spot resources of most brands were sufficient, with little pressure on the supply side [3] - The mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss [3] - Traders actively tried to raise prices, but downstream terminal procurement was negative, and the price - pressing was firm. Although the price center of the spot side gradually moved up, the trading volume was poor [3] Strategy Operation - Unilateral: BR is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the bullish logic remains unchanged [3] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]