伊朗局势短期缓解，PTA价格回撤

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The short - term situation in Iran has eased, causing the PTA price to decline. The potential risk of the oil price has not been completely eliminated, and the poor performance on the demand side has also dragged down the oil price. PX, PTA, PF, and PR are neutral in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging after a pullback in the medium - term [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is - 64 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +6 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 412 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +62 yuan/ton). The main contract's on - the - board processing fee is 333 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +2 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 337 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of - 1.00 US dollars/ton) in the previous last trading day. Due to the improvement of PX profitability, there is an expectation of further supply increase. Under the weakening fundamentals, the PXN has retreated to below 350 US dollars/ton, but the medium - term expectation of PX is still good [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not elaborated in the content Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The near - end PTA plants have gradually resumed operation. The polyester maintenance plan has been announced, but the short - term decline is limited, and the inventory build - up pressure in January is not significant [2] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Not elaborated in the content Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 90.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The weaving load continues to decline. After the end of November, domestic orders have started to weaken rapidly, and the inventory of grey fabrics has also started to accumulate rapidly. The polyester load has not changed significantly, but the maintenance plans around the Spring Festival have been announced one after another, and the average monthly load in January is expected to drop to around 88% [2] PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is - 60 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 35 yuan/ton). Recently, direct - spun polyester staple fibers have been fluctuating and consolidating following the raw materials, with weak demand. The processing margin is maintained in the range of 900 - 1000. Some direct - spun polyester staple fiber plants have announced Spring Festival maintenance, but the current maintenance intensity is limited [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 497 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 66 yuan/ton). Recently, there have been both maintenance and restart of bottle chips, and the load has not changed significantly. The overall inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth, and the market spot supply has slightly decreased. However, due to the rapid price increase in the early stage and the price remaining firm near the phased high, most downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]