需求持续萎靡，供应预期收缩

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - For polysilicon, in the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies should be the main strategy as its fundamentals are weak, mainly focused on inventory reduction, and it is susceptible to macro - sentiment and policy - side impacts [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8790 yuan/ton and closed at 8730 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton (0.46%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 230720, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 14, 2026, was 11140, a change of 12 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton [1]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13700 - 14000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the PV VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase the short - term demand for polysilicon. However, due to high inventory accumulation, the market focuses on inventory reduction, and demand transmission is blocked [2]. - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly. The silicone industry maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed a marginal weakening trend. The subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a weakening tendency [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the case of both supply and demand reduction, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and PV industry chain prices, price support is obvious. Short - term range - based operations are recommended [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 48580 yuan/ton and closing at 48670 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 47798 (48439 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 12703 [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.20 (with a month - on - month change of - 1.30%), silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW (with a month - on - month change of 13.11%), polysilicon weekly production was 23800.00 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.80%), and silicon wafer production was 10.52GW (with a month - on - month change of 3.34%) [4]. Strategy - The recent implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax - rebate for the PV industry may stimulate short - term polysilicon export rush, with an expected boost in demand, but it may come at the cost of overdrafting medium - and long - term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed last week, the expectation of coordinated price support was dashed. The overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and downstream production capacity is accelerating to clear. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies is the main strategy. The main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and short - term range - based operations are recommended [6].