Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, while BR is rated cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - The decline in the operating rate of downstream tire factories led to a weakening of spot prices mainly for Thai mixed rubber. This week, spot prices are expected to stabilize slightly with the rebound of the tire factory operating rate. Due to the overseas seasonal peak season, the pressure on domestic arrivals remains high, suppressing spot prices. In the off - season of downstream demand, domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The raw material preparation of overseas upstream factories may support raw material prices, and the cost - side support for rubber is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12] - The upstream Maoming Petrochemical plans to restart on January 24. Recently, there have been no changes in upstream facilities, and the supply this week remains stable. With the rise in the price of upstream butadiene, the profit of butadiene rubber has been compressed close to the break - even point, which may limit the short - term increase in private production, slightly easing the supply - side pressure. The operating rate of downstream tires has rebounded, but factory orders are average, and there are no bright spots in demand. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not obvious, and it is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material price and remain strong [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 12,190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,845 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Import: In December 2025, China imported a total of 953,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 18.4%. In 2025, China imported 8.525 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [2] - Automobile production and sales: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In the whole year of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a historical high [2][4] - Global natural rubber: The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in November would decrease by 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] - Tire exports: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3] - Tire factory operation: Last week, the production scheduling of most domestic tire factories did not run normally, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The shipment was slow, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to recover. With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the overall output will increase. Some enterprises will continue to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase [3] - Natural rubber export: In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 198,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [5] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the RU basis was - 295 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 995 yuan/ton (-15), the NR basis was 602 yuan/ton (+49); the whole latex was 15,700 yuan/ton (-150), the mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), the 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (-100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton (-150) [6] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 60.88 Thai baht/kg (+0.23), Thai latex was 58.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 52.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.90 Thai baht/kg (+0.70) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.02% (+7.52%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.53% (+8.75%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (+19,829), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,256,792 tons (+24,259), the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (+3,900), and the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (-1,007) [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the BR basis was - 340 yuan/ton (+60), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,550 yuan/ton (+0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 684 yuan/ton (-43) [9] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.68% (+0.54%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 8,040 tons (+1,270), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+550) [11]
化工日报：下游轮胎厂开工率环比走高-20260116
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-16 05:26