美国初请失业金人数降温，贵金属继续高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has cooled, and precious metals continue to fluctuate at high levels. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly strengthen. The gold price is expected to be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near term, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to continue to narrow [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four-week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two-year low. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now and tends to choose the next Fed chairman between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,041.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,035.20 yuan/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,035.98 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the afternoon closing. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,488.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 1,463,056 lots, and the open interest was 344,468 lots. The night session closed at 23,089 yuan/kilogram, up 1.87% from the afternoon closing [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 15, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, a change of +0.043% from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Position and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long position changed by -7,964 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by -890 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 392,878 lots, a change of -2.23% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by 678 lots, and the short position changed by 2,006 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,117,047 lots, a change of 14.39% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,074.23 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,242 tons, a decrease of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 15, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 1.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -750.38 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 45.67, a change of -0.09% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 50.86, a change of -4.76% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 45,450 kilograms, a change of -31.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,202 kilograms, a change of -19.09% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 300 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 1,020 yuan/gram and 1,045 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] Options - Options are on hold [9]