铅价走高之际，持货商扩大贴水出货

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The price of lead is currently in a state of shock, and the downstream of the lead variety may experience a slight increase in starting operations after the New Year's Day. However, if subsequent orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may consider reducing their loads or arranging holidays again. Meanwhile, the supply of the ore end remains relatively tight, and the processing fee is still at a low level. Therefore, the current lead price may oscillate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Operations can carry out buy and sell hedging as needed within the above range [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On January 15, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.33/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,375 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -200 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,175 yuan/ton, and 10,375 yuan/ton respectively [2] Futures Market - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,455 yuan/ton and closed at 17,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 88,441 lots, an increase of 40,261 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 78,429 lots, an increase of 7,992 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,680 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,585 yuan/ton and closed at 17,710 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [3] Inventory Situation - On January 15, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 33,000 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 15, the LME lead inventory was 211,400 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [4] Market Transactions - According to SMM news, the SMM1 lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Smelters in Henan Province quoted prices at par with SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and the discount of traders' quotations widened to a discount of 220 - 180 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; smelters in Hunan Province quoted prices at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders quoted prices at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead or a discount of 240 - 200 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; holders in Yunnan Province quoted prices at a discount of 300 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The inventory digestion of lead ingots in smelters was slow. Some holders actively widened the discount to sell goods, but the downstream's enthusiasm for taking delivery was poor. Some holders continued to transfer lead ingots to social warehouses, and the overall trading in the spot market was relatively light [3]