锰硅上行动能不强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the context of the warming sentiment in the commodity market and the rising cost side, the price of manganese - silicon has recently shown a volatile upward trend. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in its supply - demand pattern, the upward momentum of the price is limited, and the subsequent trend is likely to turn into a volatile one. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes in the manganese ore segment [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Since December last year, the manganese - silicon futures price has shown a volatile upward trend. The price of the main contract once exceeded the 6,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.6% from the low. The spot price also rose synchronously, with the increase range in the mainstream areas being 120 - 300 yuan/ton [2] Cost Factor - The recent continuous strengthening of the manganese - silicon price is driven by two factors: the warm sentiment in the overall commodity market and the significant upward movement of upstream costs. Since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly. Against this backdrop, the price of manganese ore has also increased. Overseas mainstream manganese ore suppliers have raised their export quotes. The increase in the cost side has directly pushed up the production cost of manganese - silicon. It is expected that the iron ore price will remain firm, and the cost side's support for the manganese - silicon price will continue [3][4] Supply Situation - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon has not improved substantially, as evidenced by the high inventory in enterprises and the slow de - stocking process. As of the week of January 9, the total inventory of domestic manganese - silicon enterprises was 382,500 tons, still at a historical high. The production loss of manganese - silicon enterprises has been narrowing, and the production enthusiasm has gradually stabilized. The new production capacity of the manganese - silicon industry has continued to be put into operation. In 2025, the average monthly production capacity of manganese - silicon was 1.9082 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.23%. In 2026, the to - be - invested production capacity of manganese - silicon is 3.0865 million tons. If this batch of production capacity is put into operation, the industry's over - supply situation will intensify [5][6] Demand Situation - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for manganese - silicon has improved marginally. As of the week of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills have rebounded, and the production enthusiasm of short - process steel mills has also increased. Driven by this, the domestic steel output has rebounded from the low level, and the demand for manganese - silicon has also improved. However, the subsequent growth space of manganese - silicon demand is worrying due to limited profit - repair of steel mills and the traditional off - season in the steel market [8]