中辉黑色观点-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bearish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Demand rebounds month-on-month, production and inventory remain largely unchanged. Profits are acceptable, but production increase is not expected due to the off-season. Iron ore prices are high, suppressing steel mills' restocking enthusiasm. The overall situation maintains range-bound operation [1][4] - Hot-rolled coil: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreases slightly but the absolute level is high, and the de-stocking speed is slow. Spot prices are relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market, and the medium-term outlook is range-bound [1][4] - Iron ore: Iron water production decreases slightly month-on-month, steel mills restock as needed, port inventory accumulates rapidly, and the fundamentals weaken marginally. The overall situation is range-bound [1][6] - Coke: The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, and some coke enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases. After the increase in raw coal prices, the losses of coke enterprises have deepened, but the short-term production enthusiasm is still acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month-on-month. Iron water production decreases slightly, downstream restocking improves slightly, and procurement is mainly based on demand. Market sentiment is volatile, and short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][10] - Coking coal: Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the supply has increased significantly month-on-month. In terms of imports, the port clearance volume has returned to the same period's high level. Recent spot transactions have improved, downstream restocking willingness is strong, and mine inventory has decreased well. There are no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals, and short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][14] - Ferromanganese: Regional supply decreases month-on-month, demand improves marginally, inventory begins to decline but the absolute level is still high. A new round of steel tenders has begun, and the recent tender prices are mostly in the range of 5870 - 5940 yuan/ton. A leading steel mill plans to purchase 17,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2300 tons, and the first-round inquiry price is 5850 yuan/ton. The final pricing should be monitored. Short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][17] - Ferrosilicon: The supply in the main production areas increases month-on-month, demand improves marginally, and inventory increases significantly month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has begun, and the final pricing of a leading steel mill is 5760 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 100 yuan/ton. The actions of other steel mills should be monitored. Short-term range-bound operation is expected [1][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - Price Information - Rebar futures: The latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3165, 3160, and 3206 respectively, with changes of 22, -2, and -4 [2] - Hot-rolled coil futures: The latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3329, 3307, and 3324 respectively, with changes of 78, 1, and -6 [2] - Spot prices: The latest prices of Tangshan billet, rebar in different regions, and hot-rolled coil in different regions are provided, along with their price changes [2] - Basis: The latest basis and its changes for rebar and hot-rolled coil in different contracts and regions are given [2] - Futures spreads: The latest spreads and their changes for different contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are presented [2] - Spot spreads: The latest spreads and their changes for different regions of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products are shown [2] - Operation Suggestion: Mid-term range-bound operation [3][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - Price Information: None provided in the given content - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish, with iron water production slightly decreasing and supply-demand weakening month-on-month [7] 3.3 Coke - Price Information - Futures: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1500.0, 1745.0, and 1819.5 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.0, 6.5, and 4.0 [9] - Spot: The prices of different types of coke in different regions remain unchanged [9] - Basis and spreads: The latest basis and spreads for different contracts and their changes are provided [9] - Operation Suggestion: Short-term range-bound operation, cautiously bearish [8][11] 3.4 Coking Coal - Price Information - Futures: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1100.0, 1187.5, and 1266.0 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 21.5, -9.0, and -9.5 [13] - Spot: The prices of different types of coking coal in different regions are given, with some showing slight decreases [13] - Basis and spreads: The latest basis and spreads for different contracts and their changes are presented [13] - Operation Suggestion: Short-term range-bound operation, cautiously bearish [12][15] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Price Information - Futures: The latest prices and price changes of different contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are provided [16] - Spot: The latest prices and price changes of different types of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon in different regions are given [16] - Basis and spreads: The latest basis and spreads for different contracts and their changes are presented [16] - Operation Suggestion: Short-term range-bound operation for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, with attention to steel mills' pricing in the new round of steel tenders [16][18]