Report Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 15, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 1.31% to 163,220 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 4,000 yuan/ton to 155,500 yuan/ton. The battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 3,500 yuan/ton to 150,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 47 tons to 27,205 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons. The production from spodumene increased by 165 tons to 14,124 tons, while the production from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,936 tons, the production from salt lake decreased by 40 tons to 3,145 tons, and the production from recycled materials decreased by 35 tons to 2,400 tons. The lithium carbonate production in January 2026 is expected to decline by 1.2% to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in January 2026 is expected to decline by 5% to 78,180 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 10% to 363,400 tons; the production of ternary power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decline by 6.15% to 28.7 GWh, the lithium iron power batteries are expected to decline by 9.77% to 90.01 GWh, and the lithium iron energy storage is expected to increase by 0.99% to 63.15 GWh. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons to 109,679 tons, with the downstream inventory decreasing by 888 tons to 35,652 tons, the inventory in other links decreasing by 720 tons to 54,300 tons, and the upstream inventory increasing by 1,345 tons to 19,727 tons [3]. - Considering the export tax - rebate adjustment, strong terminal expectations, anti - involution of battery manufacturers, and the upward revision of production schedules by cathode materials manufacturers, even though the significant increase in raw material prices may suppress terminal demand, it is difficult to disprove this in the short term. Under the trading logic of low downstream inventory and long - term bullishness on lithium prices, there will still be stocking demand and speculative demand from funds even if the price drops. Therefore, without the demand being disproven, the overall price trend is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 163,220 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 161,900 yuan/ton, down 4,440 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,060 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,935 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 16,250 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 17,850 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 150,500 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 154,850 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 143,900 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 16 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 155,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 38,397.6 yuan/ton, up 3,410 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 119,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 105,350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 98,600 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 119,250 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 192,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 182,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 188,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 205,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 55,715 yuan/ton, down 875 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) was 54,167.5 yuan/ton, down 917.5 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 50,585 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 56,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 404,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.525 yuan/Wh, up 0.017 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.54 yuan/Wh, up 0.01 yuan; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.85 yuan/piece, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.356 yuan/Wh, up 0.004 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.47 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.75 yuan/Ah, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.306 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 - 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 - 2026 [12][14][17]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 - 2026 [19][20][21]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2026 [25][27][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2026 [32][36]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 29, 2025, to January 15, 2026 [38][40]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, 外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 - 2026 [43][44].
碳酸锂日报（2026年1月16日）-20260116
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-01-16 05:35