量化2025年度复盘系列：选股策略回顾

Quantitative Models and Construction Quantitative Models and Construction Process 1. Model Name: Linear Multi-Factor Model for Index Enhancement - Construction Idea: The model is based on a linear multi-factor framework, incorporating style, price-volume, and fundamental factors to construct monthly rebalanced index enhancement portfolios for major indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500[41][42] - Construction Process: - Factors used include size, mid-cap, reversal, volatility, turnover, PB, ROE, SUE, R&D ratio, adjusted net profit expectations, analyst coverage, and others[41] - Risk control constraints include limits on size, valuation, individual stock, and industry deviations[42] - Two weighting methods are tested: IC mean weighting and ICIR weighting. ICIR weighting considers factor volatility, aiming for more stable performance[42][57] - Evaluation: ICIR weighting outperforms IC mean weighting, especially in recent years when factor returns have declined, and volatility has increased[57][44] 2. Model Name: Composite Strategy for CSI 300 Index Enhancement - Construction Idea: Combines multiple strategies to improve performance by allocating weights to different sub-strategies[60][53] - Construction Process: - The composite strategy consists of three components: 1. Base Index Enhancement Strategy (60% weight) 2. In-Scope Satellite Strategy (30% weight), focusing on momentum and fundamental factors 3. Out-of-Scope Satellite Strategy (10% weight), targeting small-cap, high-growth stocks[60][53] - Monthly rebalancing is applied to the portfolio[60] - Evaluation: The composite strategy improves annualized returns by 3.6% compared to the base strategy, with higher stability across years. However, relative drawdowns may increase in certain years[55][60] --- Model Backtesting Results Linear Multi-Factor Model for Index Enhancement 1. CSI 300 Index: - IC Mean Weighting: Annualized excess return 10.0%, tracking error 5.1%, IR 1.85[45] - ICIR Weighting: Annualized excess return 11.1%, tracking error 5.2%, IR 2.01[45] - 2025 Results: IC Mean Weighting excess return 6.8%, ICIR Weighting excess return 10.7%[57][45] 2. CSI 500 Index: - IC Mean Weighting: Annualized excess return 11.0%, tracking error 5.1%, IR 2.08[46] - ICIR Weighting: Annualized excess return 12.3%, tracking error 4.7%, IR 2.53[46] - 2025 Results: IC Mean Weighting excess return 3.1%, ICIR Weighting excess return 9.5%[57][46] 3. CSI 1000 Index: - IC Mean Weighting: Annualized excess return 14.8%, tracking error 5.4%, IR 2.67[47] - ICIR Weighting: Annualized excess return 17.4%, tracking error 5.0%, IR 3.39[47] - 2025 Results: IC Mean Weighting excess return 5.1%, ICIR Weighting excess return 10.2%[57][47] 4. CSI A500 Index: - IC Mean Weighting: Annualized excess return 7.7%, tracking error 4.5%, IR 1.67[49] - ICIR Weighting: Annualized excess return 10.3%, tracking error 4.5%, IR 2.21[49] - 2025 Results: IC Mean Weighting excess return 4.8%, ICIR Weighting excess return 13.2%[57][49] Composite Strategy for CSI 300 Index Enhancement 1. Annualized excess return: 12.2%, compared to 8.6% for the base strategy[55] 2. Information ratio: Improved from 1.56 (base strategy) to 1.93 (composite strategy)[55] 3. 2025 Results: The composite strategy mitigated drawdowns during periods of small-cap and low-valuation factor underperformance, outperforming the base strategy[56][60] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Quantitative Factors and Construction Process 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - Construction Idea: Captures the performance of small-cap stocks relative to the market[50] - Construction Process: - Exposure to small-cap stocks is measured and incorporated into the portfolio construction process - The factor contributed 3.7% to the excess return of the CSI 300 enhancement strategy in 2025[50][57] 2. Factor Name: SUE (Standardized Unexpected Earnings) - Construction Idea: Measures earnings surprises to identify stocks with positive earnings momentum[50] - Construction Process: - SUE is calculated and used as a factor in the multi-factor model - Higher exposure to SUE contributed positively to the ICIR-weighted portfolio in 2025[50][57] 3. Factor Name: R&D Ratio - Construction Idea: Reflects the intensity of research and development investment as a proxy for innovation[50] - Construction Process: - R&D ratio is calculated and included in the factor set - The factor contributed positively to the ICIR-weighted portfolio in 2025[50][57] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small-Cap Factor: Contributed 3.7% to the excess return of the CSI 300 enhancement strategy in 2025[50][57] 2. SUE Factor: Contributed 2.75% to the excess return of the ICIR-weighted portfolio in 2025[50][57] 3. R&D Ratio Factor: Contributed 0.88% to the excess return of the ICIR-weighted portfolio in 2025[50][57]