玉米反弹再走高，下游持续增库

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Corn Rebounds and Rises Further, Downstream Continues to Increase Inventory" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Author: Chen Chunlei [2] - Affiliation: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [2] Group 2: Market Performance - Corn Futures: The main corn 2603 contract continued to rebound, reaching a high of 2305, a new high in nearly a year. The spot price slightly increased, with the Pingcang price in Bayuquan rising from 2310 yuan/ton to around 2330 yuan/ton and the arrival price in Shekou Port rising from 2450 yuan/ton to around 2460 yuan/ton. The corn basis weakened, and the futures discount narrowed [3]. - Starch Futures: The main starch 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded. The starch price remained stable, with the price of Weifang Jinyu corn starch at 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [3]. Group 3: Supply Analysis - New Grain Sales: The sales progress of new grain slowed down, with regional differentiation. As of January 15, the national grain sales progress was 53%, the same as the previous year. Northeast China was 52%, 3% faster than the previous year; North China was 48%, 3% slower than the previous year; and Northwest China was 68%, 1% slower than the previous year. China Grain Reserves Corporation conducted public bidding and procurement, with a significant amount of supply. As of January 16, 602,000 tons had been put on the market, and 479,000 tons were sold. In addition, import auctions also supplemented the market. The tight supply of high - quality grain in North China still supported prices [3]. - Port Inventories: As of January 9, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.332 million tons, decreasing compared to the previous period and at a low level in recent years. The weekly shipments were 695,000 tons, maintaining a relatively high level. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 497,000 tons, continuing to increase, while the foreign trade corn inventory was 264,000 tons, decreasing [4]. - Substitute and Import: Due to the delayed wheat sowing and poor seedling conditions, wheat production may decrease. The price difference between wheat and corn remained high, making substitution unfeasible. China's corn imports increased significantly after October last year and may continue to rise to adjust the domestic corn supply - demand balance [4]. - International Market: The US corn price dropped sharply. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report increased the US corn production to a record high due to increased yields and harvest areas, leading to a nearly 10% increase in ending stocks and a 44% increase compared to the previous year. The South American corn production remained unchanged, and the global corn ending stocks increased by 4.2%, but were still 1.29% lower than the previous year [4]. Group 4: Demand Analysis - Feed Demand: Feed demand was relatively strong. Pig prices rebounded, and pig farming became profitable again. As of January 16, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan per head, turning from loss to profit, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was 7.39 yuan per head, also turning profitable. The inventory of sow - producing sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sow - producing sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month, with an increasing reduction rate. In November, large - scale farms reduced the inventory of sow - producing sows, the sales of piglets decreased, but the inventory of commercial pigs increased. It was difficult for the pig inventory to decline in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, and the losses in poultry farming narrowed. In December, the sales of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old hens continued to increase to a high level in recent years. The inventory of laying hens in December may have slightly decreased again. As the Spring Festival approached, the price increase of livestock and poultry products may lead to upstream profits and slow down the process of capacity reduction, and feed demand may remain strong [5]. - Deep - processing Demand: Deep - processing demand was insufficient. Most starch processing enterprises had losses in processing profits, and the operating rate continued to decline. As of January 16, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 57.65%, continuing to decline. The starch inventory was 1.1 million tons, continuing to decrease. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the operating rate dropped to 58.02%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises increased, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5]. Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Downstream Inventories: Downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase their corn inventories. As of January 16, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.59 million tons, continuing to increase but at a low level in recent years, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.15 days, increasing [4]. Group 6: Outlook and Suggestions - Market Outlook: The sales of new grain slowed down, and the expectation of tight supply of high - quality grain still supported prices. Public bidding and auctions supplemented the market. Downstream enterprises continued to replenish inventory, and demand was differentiated. The report was still optimistic about corn prices in the first half of the year [5]. - Suggestions: Grain - using enterprises were advised to purchase spot according to demand and maintain a safe reserve. Traders were advised to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [5]