甲醇日报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Methanol [doc id='1'] - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Date: 20260114 2. Key Points from the Report a. Futures Market - Methanol futures latest price is 2,288 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.15%. The current basis is at a historically low level. The basis has significantly narrowed in the last 5 trading days due to the relatively stronger futures price. The current basis is lower than the one - year average, indicating that the futures market has a slightly better supply - demand expectation for the future than the spot market, with limited arbitrage space and weak delivery intention [doc id='2'] b. Influencing Factors - Supply Side - Domestic methanol capacity utilization remains high, but some plants are under maintenance due to profit losses, resulting in a slight increase in production. Internationally, the situation in Iran is disturbing export expectations, potentially leading to a marginal contraction in global supply. Potential supply - disturbing factors include the geopolitical conflict in Iran (high impact) and domestic environmental protection restrictions (medium impact) [doc id='4'] - Recent import volume has increased due to the arrival of previously low - priced international goods, but future Iranian export expectations are decreasing, which may lead to a reduction in imports. Influencing factors include the Iranian geopolitical situation (high impact) and exchange - rate fluctuations (medium impact). China has a high import dependence, and international supply changes significantly affect domestic prices [doc id='5'] - Demand Side - The operating rate of downstream MTO plants remains low, mainly due to limited profits (narrowing ethylene - methanol spread), and weak demand restricts price increases. Other downstream products like formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have stable demand without significant growth. The marginal change in consumption is neutral to weak [doc id='4'] - Inventory - Port inventories are continuously increasing and are at a historically high level, mainly due to increased imports and weak demand. Production enterprises tend to reduce inventories, but traders have insufficient willingness to replenish stocks. High inventories suppress prices, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased, indicating a loose supply - demand pattern [doc id='5'] c. Market Outlook - In the short term, there is a game between the geopolitical disturbance in Iran on the supply side and high domestic inventories, and a game between weak demand and cost support on the demand side. Market hot - discussion topics include changes in Iranian exports, expectations of a rebound in MTO operating rates, and the rhythm of inventory reduction [doc id='7']