锰硅期货日报-20260116

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on manganese - silicon futures, dated January 14, 2026, and the research analyst is An Zhiyuan [1] Group 2: Futures Market - On January 14, 2026, the main manganese - silicon futures contract SM2605 opened at 5,900 yuan/ton, fluctuated weakly throughout the day, with a maximum of 5,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 5,870 yuan/ton, and closed at 5,920 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,373 lots, and the trading volume was 4.233 billion yuan, with stable capital participation [2] Group 3: Spot Market - On January 14, the market price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of January 9, the national average price index of silicon - manganese was 5,726 yuan/ton, 5,694 yuan/ton in the northern region, and 5,778 yuan/ton in the southern region, all up from the previous week. Some spot - futures enterprises' quotes remained stable, with Ningxia's quotes in the range of 05 + 350 to 05 + 390 and Inner Mongolia's in the range of 05 + 250 to 05 + 280. The market trading atmosphere was average, and spot transactions were mainly based on on - demand procurement [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors Industry News - On January 14, Mysteel reported that HBIS Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in January was 5,850 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the December price, and the procurement volume was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from December. In December, the national silicon - manganese output was 843,500 tons, a 0.62% month - on - month decrease and a 4.02% year - on - year decrease. As of January 8, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 382,500 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period, indicating continuous inventory reduction [7] Technical Analysis - The closing price of the main contract SM2605 was 5,920 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages were flat, showing a short - term bearish trend. The trading volume increased moderately, indicating a slight increase in short - selling funds. The green column of the MACD indicator widened slightly, and short - selling momentum was released. The middle track of the Bollinger Band around 5,910 yuan/ton formed short - term support, and if broken, it may further decline to the 5,870 - 5,890 yuan/ton range [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The core contradiction in the current manganese - silicon market is the game between "cost support and loose supply - demand". Rising manganese ore prices and steel mills' restocking needs support the price, but high inventory pressure and the off - season characteristics of terminal demand limit the upside. It is expected that the main contract will fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the final pricing of mainstream steel mills such as HBIS, changes in manganese ore import policies, and the rhythm of inventory reduction [9]