燃油期货日报-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The SHFE fuel oil is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend. After the technical breakthrough, the upward space is opened, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2600 yuan/ton integer mark. The trend of crude oil prices remains a key influencing factor, and if it can stay above $65 per barrel, it will further boost the confidence of the fuel oil market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 14, 2026, the opening price of the SHFE fuel oil main contract (FU.SHF) was 2496 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2599 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2492 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2586 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 6.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume on that day significantly increased to 1098156 lots, and the open interest was 244122 lots. The price showed a strong upward trend, and the closing price was close to the daily high, indicating that the bulls had an obvious advantage [2]. 3.2现货市场 - On January 14, 2026, the market price of fuel oil (domestic blended 180CST) in South China was 5008 yuan/ton, the market price of fuel oil (domestic 250) in East China was 4750 yuan/ton, and the market price of fuel oil (residual oil) in Northeast China was 3600 yuan/ton, with no obvious change from the previous day. The closing price of the fuel oil main contract on that day was 2586 yuan/ton, and the futures price was at a significant discount to the spot price, with a positive basis, reflecting a market structure where the current fuel oil spot market supply is tight and the futures market has a relatively loose expectation of future supply [4][5]. 3.3影响因素 - 产业资讯: On the supply side, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. On the demand side, there was a certain amount of inventory - building operations in the middle and lower reaches, and refinery inventories were running at a low level, supporting price increases. In addition, the ongoing tense situation in Iran and market concerns about possible reductions in crude oil exports further boosted the market's bullish sentiment [6]. - 技术分析: The technical pattern in the past five trading days showed that the SHFE fuel oil price was in an oscillating upward trend. From January 8 to January 13, the price fluctuated in the range of 2418 - 2533 yuan/ton. On January 14, there was a breakthrough increase, with a single - day increase of 6.07%, forming a large positive line pattern, and the trading volume increased simultaneously, indicating strong upward momentum. The price successfully broke through the previous high, and the technical side showed obvious strong characteristics, confirming a short - term upward trend [7].