金信期货观点-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the oversupply pressure in 2026 remains the core driver of oil price movements. Geopolitical risks have fluctuated recently, with short - term price fluctuations due to the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, while the medium - term downward trend remains valid [4]. - For PX & PTA, domestic PX operating rates have increased, and future supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA is currently in a short - term tight balance, but high operating rates may not be sustainable, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels following the cost side [4]. - For MEG, the supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short - term [5]. - For BZ & EB, pure benzene has high inventory pressure and is expected to oscillate widely. Styrene shows a short - term strong trend but may face callback risks due to upstream cost constraints [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The oversupply pressure in 2026 is the most core driver of oil price movements. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified and then weakened, and short - term price fluctuations are dominated by the uncertainty of the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, with the medium - term downward trend remaining intact [4]. PX & PTA - PX: Domestic PX operating rates have reached a two - year high, and PX processing fees have fallen to around $320/ton. Future supply - demand is expected to weaken. The annual average domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 91.95%, up 2.83% from last week; the Asian PX capacity utilization rate is 79.84%, up 0.66% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread has dropped to around $320/ton [4][8]. - PTA: The domestic PTA device load has decreased slightly, and the production capacity utilization rate is 77.22%, down 0.19% from last week. Factory inventories have increased slightly, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The current high - operating rate may not be sustainable, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels following the cost side. The PTA spot market price is 5068 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [4][13]. MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol syngas device is undergoing spring maintenance, and the supply pressure has eased. The port inventory has increased again, but imports are expected to decline in January - February. In the short - term, the supply - demand is weak, with support around 3600 yuan/ton and limited rebound height. The medium - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, and it is expected to oscillate at low levels. The ethylene glycol price in East China is 3701 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from last week, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 62.69%, up 0.37% from last week [5][19]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The port inventory has continued to accumulate to a historical high, and the supply - demand pattern is overall loose, expected to oscillate widely. The pure benzene operating rate is 74.26%, down 0.12% from last week, and the inventory has reached 32.4 tons, up 0.6 tons from last week [5][27]. - Styrene: The port inventory has decreased more than expected. The short - term trend is strong, but there is a callback risk due to upstream cost constraints. The styrene operating rate is 70.86%, down 0.06% from last week, and the port inventory is 10.06 tons, down 3.17 tons from last week [5][27]. Downstream Industry - The polyester industry's average capacity utilization rate is 86.7%, down 0.46% from last week. The inventory levels of polyester staple fibers and filaments have decreased slightly. - The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises is 54.94%, down 2.95% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 7.73 days, down 0.96 days from last week, and the average terminal weaving finished product inventory is 28.27 days, up 0.70 days from last week. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and the clothing consumption demand is weak [22].