“未来产业”主题系列报告（二）：商业航天：跨越“卡门线”

Core Conclusions - The "singularity" of commercial aerospace is approaching, with a transition from "single satellite testing" to "constellation networking" underway. China's satellite deployment completion is currently around 1%, indicating significant room for growth in the coming years as rocket recovery and reusability technologies are mastered [1][9][10] - Commercial aerospace is a high-growth and scarce sector, with the successful launch of the "Zhuque-3" rocket, which has a capacity of 21.3 tons (non-recoverable), setting a strong foundation for mass satellite launches. The cost of commercial rocket launches in China is expected to decrease rapidly, further enhancing market potential [2][17][18] - The commercial aerospace sector is likely to evolve into a mainline market, with the second wave of market growth not being the endpoint. The satellite industry index has increased nearly 105% in a short period, indicating strong investor interest and potential for further growth as rocket recovery technologies mature [3][27][28] Group 1: The Singularity of Commercial Aerospace - Global commercial aerospace is at a critical stage, moving towards "constellation networking" with strict timelines set by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for satellite frequency and orbital resource applications [1][9] - China's satellite constellation construction is lagging, with significant room for improvement in launch frequency and completion rates. The largest constellation, SpaceX's Starlink, has a completion rate of approximately 18.9%, while China's major constellations are at about 1% [10][11] Group 2: High-Growth Potential - The bottleneck in China's commercial aerospace development is insufficient rocket capacity, leading to high satellite launch costs. However, the successful launch of the "Zhuque-3" rocket marks a significant breakthrough, with a theoretical capacity to launch multiple satellites simultaneously [17][18] - The market space for satellite launches is substantial, with an estimated annual demand for approximately 4,000 satellites based on the lifespan of existing constellations [2][17] Group 3: Transition to Mainline Market - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to transition from a thematic market to a mainline market as rocket recovery technologies mature. The current market dynamics suggest that the sector is in the middle of a long-term upward trend [3][27][31] - The performance of leading companies in the sector indicates that while there has been significant growth, there is still potential for further increases compared to other sectors like low-altitude economy and new energy vehicles [3][27] Group 4: Focus on Rocket Manufacturing and Satellite Services - The commercial aerospace market is expected to follow a clear sequence of development, with rocket manufacturing leading the charge, followed by satellite payloads and platforms. The downstream application and service market still lack clear business models, indicating room for growth [4][33][34] - As satellite launches increase, the need for operational and service capabilities will become critical, making satellite operations and services a key area of focus for future investment [4][33][34] Group 5: Industry Chain and Related Stocks - A comprehensive industry chain map for commercial aerospace has been developed, highlighting key players and stocks for investor reference. This includes segments such as rocket manufacturing, satellite payloads, platforms, testing, and operations [41][42]