白糖周报：冲高未果，郑糖上方承压-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) attempted to break through the 5300 yuan/ton mark this week but failed to hold. The spot price was firm due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, but overall supply was abundant with new sugar on the market, a rapid increase in warehouse receipts, and an expected year - on - year rise in December imports. The decline in external market prices also had a negative impact. Short - term, Zheng sugar is expected to remain volatile. Weather in Guangxi should be monitored due to a cold wave warning [55]. - Internationally, the global sugar market has weakened with significant supply pressure. As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 15.885 million tons, higher than the previous year, and the average sugar yield increased. In Brazil, due to dry weather, the crushing progress was fast and may finish ahead of schedule. The international sugar market remains weak, with support at around 14 cents per pound [55]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zheng sugar fluctuated slightly with a weekly decline of 0.38%, and ICE sugar dropped with a weekly decline of 2.01% [8]. - Spot Price and Basis Trends: No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text. - Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan: No specific analysis content is provided in the given text. - Sugar Imports: In November, imports were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4019 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5090 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4078 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5166 yuan/ton [20]. - Domestic Industrial Inventory: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in November was about 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58,900 tons [23]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total of Zheng sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 14,881, an increase of 4313 from the previous week. There were 14,126 warehouse receipts and 755 valid forecasts [31]. - Brazilian Production Progress: In the first half of December, the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and sugar production was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [35]. - Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.91%, compared with 48.19% in the same period last year [40]. - Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports: In December, Brazil's sugar exports were 2.913 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [42]. - International Main - producing Area Weather: In Brazil, there was abundant rainfall, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. In India, there was little precipitation, which was conducive to sugarcane crushing [51]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic Market: Zheng sugar is expected to remain volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as supply, external market prices, and weather [55]. - International Market: The international sugar market remains weak with strong supply pressure, and the support level is around 14 cents per pound [55].