国信期货油脂油料周报：油强粕弱凸显，连粕持续走低-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oils this week was soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil, with a slight recovery in the soybean - palm oil spread. The soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal oil - to - meal ratios of the main contracts slightly recovered, and the price spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to rise. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal slightly declined, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil slightly recovered, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil significantly declined, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil slightly recovered [62][97][102]. - In the short - term, the technical indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish; the short - and medium - term indicators of soybean oil are bullish, while the long - term indicator is entangled; the indicators of palm oil are all entangled; and the indicators of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meals, international weather may be a factor for speculation, and domestic soybean meal spot remains firm. For oils, international geopolitics affects the market, and domestic oils may rotate [123][124]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - Market Trends: CBOT soybeans fluctuated lower this week, first falling and then rising. Domestic soybean meal futures declined, while the spot market was relatively firm, showing a situation of strong spot and weak futures [6]. - Export Data: As of January 8, 2026, the weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans was 1,529,707 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 17,934,546 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.8%. The export to China in that week was 901,118 tons, accounting for 58.9% of the total [10]. - South American Market: In Brazil, as of January 9, the soybean harvest progress was 0.53%. In Argentina, as of January 8, the cotton, corn, and soybean planting rates were 86%, 90%, and 92% respectively [20][21][29]. - Oilseed Market: The USDA raised the production and inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season and lowered exports. The NOPA's December soybean crushing volume was the second - highest on record [32][31]. - Inventory and Consumption: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic soybean port inventory was about 833.96 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 99.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.7 tons [41][47]. 3.2 Oils Market Analysis - Market Trends: US soybean oil rose significantly this week, reaching a 7 - week high. Malaysian palm oil fluctuated at a low level and closed slightly higher. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil rising, palm oil rising and then falling, and rapeseed oil falling first and then rising [62]. - International Data: In December 2025, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased to 305 tons. In January 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month. In December 2025, India's palm oil imports reached an 8 - month low [66][67][68]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 214.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.48 tons [83]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Seasonal Analysis: Seasonal index data for US soybeans, soybean meal, domestic soybean meal, and various oils and meals are provided, but no specific conclusions are drawn [114][115][117]. - Next - Week Outlook: Technically, the indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish; those of soybean oil are bullish in the short and medium - term; those of palm oil are entangled; and those of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meals, weather and South American harvests may affect the market, and domestic soybean meal spot remains firm. For oils, geopolitics and policies may impact the market, and domestic oils may rotate [123][124].