Bank of China Securities·2026-01-16 08:44Index Performance - HSI closed at 26,924, down 0.3% daily and up 5.0% YTD [2] - HSCEI closed at 9,267, down 0.5% daily and up 4.0% YTD [2] - HSCCI closed at 4,154, up 0.4% daily and up 3.4% YTD [2] - MSCI HK closed at 14,490, up 0.3% daily and up 5.9% YTD [2] - MSCI CHINA closed at 87, down 1.0% daily and up 5.0% YTD [2] - FTSE CHINA A50 closed at 15,340, unchanged daily and up 0.2% YTD [2] - CSI 300 closed at 4,751, up 0.2% daily and up 2.6% YTD [2] - TWSE closed at 30,811, down 0.4% daily and up 6.4% YTD [2] - SENSEX closed at 83,628, down 0.3% daily and down 1.9% YTD [2] - NIKKEI 225 closed at 54,111, down 0.4% daily and up 7.5% YTD [2] - KOSPI closed at 4,798, up 1.6% daily and up 13.8% YTD [2] - ASX 200 closed at 8,821, down 0.1% daily and up 1.7% YTD [2] - DJIA closed at 49,442, up 0.6% daily and up 2.9% YTD [2] - S&P 500 closed at 6,944, up 0.3% daily and up 1.4% YTD [2] - FTSE 100 closed at 10,239, up 0.5% daily and up 3.1% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude closed at US$64/bbl, down 4.1% daily and up 4.8% YTD [3] - Gold closed at US$4,616/oz, down 0.2% daily and up 6.9% YTD [3] - Copper closed at US$13,189/t, up 0.2% daily and up 6.2% YTD [3] - Aluminum closed at US$3,203/t, down 0.5% daily and up 7.9% YTD [3] - Nickel closed at US$18,495/t, up 5.8% daily and up 12.1% YTD [3] - CH domestic steel rebar 25 closed at RMB3,244/t, up 0.1% daily and up 0.1% YTD [3] - CH domestic high speed wire closed at RMB3,700/t, unchanged daily and up 0.3% YTD [3] - CH domestic hot rolled steel closed at RMB3,287/t, down 0.1% daily and up 0.5% YTD [3] - CH domestic cold rolled steel closed at RMB3,800/t, down 0.1% daily and down 0.1% YTD [3] - BDI closed at 1,608, unchanged daily and down 14.3% YTD [3] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - China's Retail Sales YoY in January 19th actual was 1.3%, higher than the consensus of 1.1% [4] - China's Industrial Production YoY in January 19th actual was 4.8%, lower than the consensus of 5.0% [4] - China's Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -2.6%, higher than the consensus of -3.1% [4] - China's Property Investment YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -15.9%, higher than the consensus of -16.5% [4] - China's Residential Property Sales YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -11.2% [4] - China's Surveyed Jobless Rate in January 19th actual was 5.1%, lower than the consensus of 5.2% [4] - China's GDP YoY in January 19th actual was 4.8%, higher than the consensus of 4.5% [4] - China's GDP YTD YoY in January 19th actual was 5.2%, higher than the consensus of 5.0% [4] - China's 1-Year Loan Prime Rate on January 20th remained at 3.0% as expected [4] - China's 5-Year Loan Prime Rate on January 20th remained at 3.5% as expected [4] - US PCE Price Index YoY in January 22nd actual was 2.8% [4] - US Core PCE Price Index YoY in January 22nd actual was 2.8%, in line with the consensus [4] - US Personal Income MoM in January 22nd actual was 0.4%, in line with the consensus [4] - US Personal Spending MoM in January 22nd actual was 0.4%, lower than the consensus of 0.5% [4] - US GDP Annualized QoQ in January 22nd actual was 4.3%, in line with the consensus [4] - US S&P Global US Services PMI in January 23rd actual was 52.5%, lower than the consensus of 52.8% [4] - US U. of Mich. Sentiment in January 23rd actual was 54.0%, in line with the consensus [4] - US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI in January 23rd actual was 51.8%, lower than the consensus of 52.0% [4] - BOJ Target Rate in January 23rd actual was 0.8%, in line with the consensus [4] New Loans and Monetary Policy - In December, new loans reached RMB910bn, down RMB80bn YoY, narrowing the YoY decline from -32.8% in November to -8.1% [6][8] - Corporate short - term, medium - and long - term loans, and bond financing bounced up YoY in December, while household sector credit demand remained sluggish [6][8] - Monetary policymakers announced incremental loosening policies of structural monetary tools and signaled room for further RRR and policy rate cuts [7][8] TSMC - Rating: BUY (TT & ADR). TSMC's 4Q25 EPS was 8% above consensus, and 1Q26 sales/margins are ahead of expectations [9][13] - The 2026 outlook projects sales growing close to 30% YoY with US$52 - 56bn CAPEX [9][13] - Management lifted long - term guidance, targeting 25% / mid - to - high 50s Group / AI sales CAGR (2024 - 29) and a 56% gross margin [10][13] - Target prices are raised to NT$2,420 / US$445 based on 24x 2026 - 27 P/E and a 16% premium [11][14] Li Ning - Rating: HOLD. Li Ning's 4Q25 retail sell - through was down LSD YoY, affected by weak consumer sentiment [15][17] - The full - year 2025 results were in line with guidance, with revenue achieving marginal growth and NPM approaching the upper end of HSD [15][17] - The inflection point may take longer due to athleisure adjustment and Olympic marketing investment lag [16][17] - The current 2025/2026 P/E valuation of 17x/16x appears full [16][17] Uranium Sector - Uranium spot price rose to US$83.5/lb, and major uranium ETFs rallied 22% YTD [18][20] - The White House's proclamation on critical materials may lead to supportive policies for uranium [19][20] - Positive outlook for the uranium sector in 2026, with top pick Kazatomprom, also recommending CGN Mining and Cameco [19][20] CMOC Group - Rating: HOLD. CMOC expects 2025 net profit of RMB20.0 - 20.8bn, up 48 - 54%, and 2025 copper output grew 14% YoY to 741k tonnes [21][23] - 2025 profit was 4 - 8% below forecast, though copper output was 5% above forecast; 2026 copper output target is 6 - 14% above forecast [22][23] - Forecasts and HOLD rating remain unchanged, and the market may react positively to output guidance [22][23]