国信期货生猪周报：消费旺季临近，关注出栏节奏-20260116

Report Title - "Consumption Peak Season Approaching, Pay Attention to Slaughter Rhythm —— Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] Report Date - January 16, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live pig spot market fluctuated strongly, the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened, the slaughter volume was generally stable, the large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume recovered to normal from a low level, and the small and medium - sized farmers' slaughter volume decreased slightly, indicating strong demand and tight supply. The futures market rose due to the strong spot market and the discount of the futures price to the spot price, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts also strengthened [7]. - Based on the number of piglet births, the theoretical supply of standard pigs in the first quarter remains high. However, due to the strong price difference between fat and standard pigs, the industry's behavior of delaying slaughter and secondary fattening has led to a temporary shortage of slaughter volume. Currently, the average slaughter weight has been rising continuously, indicating that the inventory of live pigs is still increasing [7]. - From the demand side, starting from the second half of next week, the slaughter demand in the industry will enter the climbing period of the peak season before the Spring Festival. At that time, the supply of pigs from large - scale enterprises and large pigs from small farmers will also increase simultaneously. This will be an important node to verify the matching degree of real supply and demand, and the inventory reduction situation will also be an important guide for the spot price in the off - season after the Spring Festival [7]. - In the long term, the recent rapid increase in piglet prices reflects that the industry's expectations are tilting towards optimism. Attention should be paid to the impact of the rising piglet prices on the pace of capacity reduction [7]. - In the futures market, the current futures price is strong. Although the main LH03 contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival, the market still focuses on the strong spot market and the possibility of reduced supply pressure after the Spring Festival due to the accelerated digestion of large pigs before the Spring Festival. However, considering the valuation level and the subsequent supply - demand forecast, the current price may be close to the upper limit of the oscillation range. The far - end contracts are supported by capacity reduction, but the swing of expectations should be vigilant. In terms of operation, the near - end contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and for the far - end contracts, pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band - trading long under the idea of wide - range oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live pig spot market was strong last week, and the futures market was also boosted. In the first quarter, the theoretical supply of standard pigs is high, but the actual slaughter volume is temporarily tight. The demand will enter the peak - season climbing period soon, and the matching of supply and demand will be verified. The rising piglet prices affect the capacity - reduction pace. The near - end futures contracts are expected to be weak, and the far - end contracts can be considered for low - level long - trading [7]. 2 - 14. Other Sections - The report also includes various aspects such as pig futures prices, futures contract spreads, spot prices, price differences between fat and standard pigs, changes in breeding sows, piglets, inventory, slaughter, consumption, frozen meat market, cost and profit, central reserve operations, and multi - caliber comparisons, but specific content summaries are not provided in the given text [8][12][16]