有色日报：有色普跌-20260116

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper's main contract price approached the 100,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The traditional downstream is resistant to high copper prices. It is expected that the purchasing demand may recover next week. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 RMB mark [5]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum's main contract price fell below the 24,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The downstream is cautious about aluminum prices above 24,000 RMB. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and the monthly spread continues to weaken. There is strong technical pressure, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 RMB mark [6]. - Today, the nickel price showed a downward trend, and the main contract price fell to the 140,000 RMB mark. The short - term macro - environment cooled, and non - ferrous metals declined across the board. The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesian mines continues to support the price, but the pattern of strong expectation and weak reality in the industry remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 RMB mark [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - On January 16, the raw material inventory of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.02% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week. The downstream market is cautious, and the new order volume is still at a low level. The copper cable operating rate decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [9]. Aluminum - On January 16, the total inventory of bauxite in 10 domestic ports decreased by 390,000 tons compared with the previous week [10]. Nickel - On January 16, the upstream quotation of high - nickel pig iron was maintained at 1050 - 1100 RMB/nickel point, and the downstream steel mills' procurement was cautious. The significant price increase does not match the actual demand, and there is little trading in the market [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. Aluminum - The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provides charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].