格林大华期货聚焦中东地缘

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy has passed its peak and is moving downward due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [7] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, initiated monthly purchases of $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds, and restarted balance - sheet expansion [8] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is approaching a critical point, and international oil prices have rebounded rapidly, but the rise is pulsed and not trending [4][42] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to become the leading sector of the new upward market, driven by TSMC's strong performance and capital expenditure [44][45] - The appreciation of the RMB is accelerating, which is conducive to the accelerated influx of international capital into China [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The United States' series of actions, such as arresting the Venezuelan president, seizing oil tankers on the high seas, and attempting to buy Greenland, have brought great uncertainty to the global economy. The US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, possibly leading to a "flight from US assets" trend [6] - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is estimated to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% - 37%, which is expected to hit a record high, indicating the continuation of the AI boom [6][44] - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine and contracting globally, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [6] US Economic Data - The US core CPI in December was 2.6%, lower than expected, with zero month - on - month growth (but the data may be underestimated). The PPI of US commodities in November increased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.9% month - on - month, indicating an upward inflation trend [11][14] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 198,000, the unemployment rate was 4.4%, the employment boom declined, and the number of voluntary corporate layoffs increased [16][19] - The total retail and food sales in the US in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, possibly due to seasonal factors, but overall consumption has weakened. The import value of capital goods in October was $94.4 billion, showing signs of weakness, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [22][25] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index continued to contract in December, while the manufacturing and service PMI price indices continued to expand, indicating that the US is sliding into stagflation [28][30] Global Economic Situation - The eurozone manufacturing PMI continued to contract in December, and the eurozone economy was greatly impacted by US reciprocal tariffs [33] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the yield of Japan's 10 - year Treasury bonds soared to 2%, and the large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US Treasuries, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [35] Asset Allocation - The international political order is disordered, accelerating the re - allocation of global financial assets, mainly flowing to China. The adjustment of the Chinese stock market is expected to end in the first half of next week, and then resume the upward trend [41] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive in the rising market, and the CSI 500 index is expected to lead the new upward market [40][52] - TSMC's strong performance and capital expenditure point to the high - prosperity direction of the semiconductor equipment sector. The semiconductor equipment ETF has completed an upward breakthrough, and the chip ETF is about to break through upward, and the semiconductor industry chain is expected to replace commercial aerospace as the leading sector of the new upward market [44][45] - The appreciation of the RMB is accelerating, which is conducive to the accelerated influx of international capital into China [49]