资金观察，货币瞭望：政策宽松加结构性降息，预计1月市场利率下行

Core Insights - The report indicates a policy easing combined with structural interest rate cuts, predicting a decline in market interest rates in January [4][52][77] Group 1: Overseas Monetary Market Indicators - The expectation for interest rate cuts in overseas markets has weakened, with short-term US Treasury rates rebounding to around 3.7% [6] - The Federal Funds rate and SOFR rates have remained stable since December [6] Group 2: Domestic Monetary Market Indicators - Price indicators show that the interbank and exchange repo rates generally increased in December, with R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 changing by -7BP, 14BP, 7BP, and 14BP respectively [11][19] - Volume indicators reveal that the overnight transaction volume in both interbank and exchange markets increased compared to the previous month, although the proportion slightly declined [34] - The excess reserve ratio is estimated to be 1.6% for December and 1.1% for January [4][42] Group 3: January Funding Outlook - The central bank's supportive stance, combined with the seasonal tendency for liquidity to ease after the year-end, suggests a decline in market interest rates in January [4][52] - The central bank is expected to net withdraw liquidity in January, with a slight decrease in the excess reserve ratio anticipated [72] Group 4: Short-term Bond Yield Changes - In December, the yields on short-term bonds showed mixed trends, with 1-year government bonds and 1-year policy bank bonds changing by -3BP and -2BP respectively [25] - The yield spread between 1-year AAA short-term financing bonds and government bonds slightly widened by 6BP [25] Group 5: Money Market Fund Returns - The 7-day annualized yield for the Yu'ebao fund was 1.02% in December, with the average yield for the top ten money market funds showing a slight increase [28] Group 6: Seasonal Trends in Monetary Indicators - December saw a significant reduction in fiscal deposits, with a decrease of 13,845 billion yuan, while January is expected to see a seasonal increase in fiscal deposits of around 4,000 billion yuan [59] - The M0 increased by 3,892 billion yuan in December, with an expected increase of 7,000 billion yuan in January due to cash demand ahead of the Spring Festival [53]